Equities corrected. Now what?

In the last 12 sessions, equities have experienced a kind of mini crash, erasing the year-to-date gains on most indices. We need to take a step back and try to make some sense of the recent market action to define the strategy which will make or break performance for the last two months of the year.
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Equity markets undermined by mounting risks

The September 2014 edition of Perspectives magazine is out.

World economy becoming increasingly desynchronised

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Euro area’s PMI surveys: weak forward looking components

In October, after two months of decline, the composite PMI recorded a modest rise thanks to an increase in the German manufacturing PMI. Nevertheless, the details showed that most of the forward-looking indicators painted a weak picture for the months ahead. Thus, the economic forecast for the euro area for the end of the year […]

Equity markets undermined by mounting risks

Asset management in the era of big data While the departure of the ‘bond king’ Bill Gross at Pimco has dominated headlines in the asset management industry, behind the scenes, leaders are worrying about possible future competition from tech giants such as Google, Facebook or Alibaba. But what is there to fear, a priori, from […]

United States: falling gasoline prices should boost consumer spending

Today’s retail sales report was weaker than expected. Apparently, consumption ended Q3 on a soft note. However, following the recent sharp fall in gasoline prices and its impact on real personal income, we believe growth in consumer spending will prove quite robust over the coming months. Nominal retail sales dropped by 0.3% m-o-m in September, […]

Euro area: industrial production figures point to fading momentum

Yesterday’s release puts some downside risk to our GDP growth projection of 0.2% q-o-q in Q3: after real GDP stagnated in Q2, industrial production data now points to a contraction in Q3. Euro area industrial production fell sharply in August, more than offsetting the previous monthly rise. Some temporary factors (the timing of German school […]

Germany: gloomy sentiment translated into activity deterioration

German hard data were disappointing in August, in line with the softening in business surveys (PMIs, IFO, ZEW and EC surveys). Although, some temporary factors (shift in school summer holidays, the rundown of car inventories) might have exaggerated August’s depressed data, the underlying trend appears to be very weak. Thus, the German economic forecast for […]

United States: unemployment falls below 6%

Non-farm payroll employment rose by 248,000 m-o-m in September, above consensus expectations (215,000). Moreover, August’s figure was revised up (from +142,000 to +180,000), as was the number for June (from 212,000 to 243,000). Net revisions therefore cumulated to a sizeable +69,000. Overall, employment growth has averaged a robust 224,000 per month in Q3, a reading […]

United States: ISM indices softer in September, but still at very robust levels

Both ISM indices weakened in September. However, they had reached very high levels in August. Overall, findings from these surveys point to strong economic growth. We remain quite optimistic on the US economy. The ISM manufacturing survey for September was published on Tuesday. The headline reading fell back from 59.0 in August to 56.6 in […]

The ECB’s press conference points to an ice bucket purchase programme

The main interest of today’s press conference was in the details of the ABS and covered bonds purchasing programme. On this regard, Mario Draghi did not give any details of the operation or reveal what amounts the ECB expects from these two programmes. Instead, he systematically referred to the press release describing the technical details […]

US consumer spending bounced back strongly in August

Real personal consumption expenditure increased by a strong 0.5% m-o-m in August, in line with consensus expectations. Moreover, July’s fall was revised for the better (from -0.2% m-o-m to -0.1%), whilst June’s increase was revised up from +0.2% to +0.3%. As a result, between Q2 and July-August, consumer spending grew by 1.9% annualised, admittedly a […]

Euro area: tentative signs of stabilisation in monetary aggregates

Recent ECB measures and the end of the AQR and bank stress tests in October might ease credit constraints. Nevertheless, the impact on the real economy is unlikely to materialise before the beginning of 2015. Rebound in M3 growth The annual growth rate of euro area M3 monetary aggregate increased from 1.8% y-o-y in July […]

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