USA: retail sales started Q3 on a soft note

We are not overly worried by today’s soft set of data. We forecast that consumption will grow by some 21⁄2% q-o-q annualised in Q3, a similar growth rate to what was recorded in Q2. And our scenario that economic growth will settle at around a robust 3% in H2 2014 remains unchanged.

ECB press conference

The euro area recovery will remain fragile. Further unconventional monetary policy measures will thus be required over a six-month period.

EU: sanctions against Russia

Russian crisis could dent the fragile euro area recovery through several channels: trade, energy and the banking sector.

US employment report: job creation robust once again in July

July’s employment report was solid overall. Together with other data available for July, it is lending further support to our view that growth will settle at around 3% in H2 2014.

USA: GDP growth well above expectations in Q2

Overall, we remain quite optimistic for the future. More specifically, we continue to expect GDP growth to settle at around 3.0% in H2 2014 and in 2015.

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Euro area: deflationary environment continues to prevail

In August, euro area headline inflation moved further away from the ECB target, recording its 90th consecutive month below 2%. Meanwhile, monetary aggregates and surveys on activity painted a weak picture, suggesting a fragile recovery after a disappointing H1. Thus, these developments show that deflationary forces are still at play in the euro area. A […]

USA: very disappointing consumption numbers in July

July consumption data were very disappointing. However, as fundamentals are pointing to robust growth in consumer spending, we are reluctant to cut our Q3 forecasts by too much. Overall, we remain optimistic on consumption and overall GDP growth in H2. Real consumer spending contracted in July Real personal consumption expenditure declined by 0.2% m-o-m in […]

ECB: Mario Draghi breaks with taboos

The ECB’s president, Mario Draghi, called for all available instruments to be used – demand side, supply side policies, structural reforms and monetary policy – to avoid the threat of the euro area falling apart. Indeed, the German Ifo business survey continued its downward trend in August, in line with other business surveys (PMI) and […]

Euro area: gloomy purchasing managers surveys in August

August’s PMI survey disappointed, with the exception of the French services sector, as sentiment deteriorated compared to July. Weak Q2 GDP figures, low inflation, surveys pointing south and a poor outlook put more pressure on the ECB to act. Manufacturing sector on a downward trend The euro area flash manufacturing PMI fell by 1.0 points […]

United States: housing market

Following their slump during the winter months, home sales and residential construction bounced back in Q2. Data available are pointing to further progress in Q3. We remain optimistic and believe things will continue to improve progressively in the US housing market. Substantial recovery in existing home sales Following a weather-induced slump in Q1, existing home […]

Euro area Q2 GDP growth: recovery fails to gain traction

Euro area GDP growth came in on a weak note again, failing to beat consensus expectations and thus reinforcing the view that the euro area economy remains fragile and subdued. Disappointing growth figures Eurostat’s preliminary estimate showed that euro area real GDP growth remained flat in Q2 (0.0% q-o-q, 0.2% q-o-q annualised), coming in lower […]

ECB press conference

As expected, Mario Draghi did not announce any new measures at today’s press conference. His reaction to recent disappointing economic news had, however, been widely awaited. He clearly appeared concerned about the impact of current geopolitical risks, in particular those from the Ukrainian crisis. The euro area recovery process is likely to remain fragile and […]

USA: ISM indices rose further markedly in July

The ISM surveys – together with most other economic data published recently – show encouraging signs that the US economy continued to grow robustly in July. We remain quite optimistic for Q3 growth. The ISM manufacturing survey for the month of July was published last Friday. The headline index climbed from 55.3 in June to […]

EU: sanctions against Russia

Intensification of EU sanctions After the downing of the Malaysia airline (July 17) and the on-going instability in Ukraine, EU officials decided to intensify the sanctions against Russia to persuade Russian leaders to abandon their support for separatists in Ukraine. In addition to the previous restrictions on individuals and companies, EU officials approved restrictions that […]

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