The Millennials: Decoding the New Generation

Millennials are born between 1981 and 1996. Their spending will rise from USD 1.2trn to USD 2.1trn over the next 15 years.
The November 2015 edition of Perspectives magazine is now available

The markets’ pole star is fading

Central banks are running out of steam

Central banks are becoming increasingly interdependent, which adds to uncertainty for markets.
The October 2015 edition of Perspectives magazine is now available

Higher market volatility should not preclude a rebound in DM equities

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Last call before easing: the ECB needs to surprise while saving ammunition for 2016

We have laid out our baseline scenario for this week’s ECB policy meeting, including a 10bp deposit rate cut, a 6-month QE extension and a possible broadening of the scope of asset purchases. Recent ECB rhetoric suggests that risks are tilted towards a more aggressive policy package. It would not be the first time that […]

Japan: a year of normalisation – still appealing, but risk-reward is not as good as before

A number of concerns hang over the outlook for Japanese equities in 2016. The first phase of Abenomics had only mixed success, and plans for the second phase are still vague. Although there are some encouraging signs, the economy’s trajectory remains weak. Earnings have been resilient, but this may not be sustained. Japanese equities saw […]

Euro area: strong rebound in bank credit flows in October, with more to come

We were looking for a rebound in euro area bank credit flows in October following a large and unexpected decline in September, largely due to a collapse in lending to non-financial corporations in the Netherlands. In the end, bank lending to the non-financial private sector did recover quite strongly in October and we continue to […]

Business surveys in the euro area: solid growth in services sector

November’s euro area business surveys highlighted that the recovery continues to be largely led by domestic strength. In terms of countries, German surveys (PMI, IFO) surprised on the upside, whereas in France, surveys (PMI, INSEE) were less upbeat than in the previous month, partly reflecting the loss of confidence after the Paris attacks. Composite PMI […]

2016 macroeconomic and strategic alternative scenarios

In the following post, we feature the conditions under which two alternative scenarios for 2016 , one positive and one negative, could materialize. Please see our “Macroeconomic and Strategic Scenario for 2016: Key takeaways” post for a detailed overview of our core forecasts.  Upside risks for a positive alternative scenario Greater acceleration of economic growth in Europe, […]

Secular outlook for the global economy and financial markets: key takeaways

In the inflation/deflation debate, we are in the deflationist camp. If economic mechanisms are left unchecked, deflationary forces will rise. DM central banks will struggle to hit their 2% inflation targets. The inflation targeting monetary policy style of the 1990s and early 2000s was followed by the quantitative easing (QE) style after the 2008-11 US […]

US monetary policy: a December hike remains the most likely scenario

Although monetary conditions have tightened noticeably so far in November, the most likely scenario remains that the Fed will hike rates in December. Conditions for a hike “could well be met” in December The FOMC statement published after the 27-28 October meeting has sounded more hawkish than expected, as it put a December hike more […]

Macroeconomic and Strategic Scenario for 2016: Key takeaways

Macroeconomy  US real GDP growth will be above potential at 2.5% (against potential growth of 1.8%), but with an absence of momentum. Growth will be driven by domestic demand. Euro area growth will accelerate modestly, to 1.8%, from an estimated 1.5% in 2015. Domestic demand is picking up — particularly in the periphery — supported […]

Euro area: moderate Q3 GDP growth, but more domestically driven

According to Eurostat’s preliminary estimate, euro area real GDP grew by 0.3% q-o-q (1.2% q-o-q annualised; 1.6% y-o-y) in Q3, below consensus expectations (0.4%), thus marking a gentle slowdown from the 0.4% q-o-q recorded in Q2 2015. Although detailed components are not made available with the preliminary GDP estimate, evidence from core countries suggests that […]

United States: core retail sales have risen only modestly so far in the fourth quarter

Nominal total retail sales increased by 0.1% m-o-m in October, below consensus expectations (+0.3%). Total sales were dented by a 0.9% m-o-m fall in nominal sales at gasoline stations and a 0.5% decline in nominal auto sales. This latter decrease came as a surprise as already published data on unit car sales (real) had shown […]

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