The Call of Asia

Robust economic growth, the improving quality of corporate earnings, and a new generation of entrepreneurs all plead in favour of investing directly in Asia.
'Perspectives', December 2017

Doing nicely

The Entrepreneurs

The 4th Pictet Entrepreneurs Summit held brought together an exclusive group of 60 entrepreneurs and investors with a passion for innovation.

Nine years on, the bull has some room to run

While growth may already have peaked in the large developed markets, we do not expect a recession. Earnings growth should continue to drive equities and interest rates should remain low.
'Perspectives', October-November 2017

Deceptive calm, ‘Perspectives’, October-November 2017

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House View, December 2017

Asset allocation Economic and earnings growth continue to offer good momentum and the possibility of upside surprises for 2018, so we remain overweight DM equities. However, uncertainties over other key aspects of the outlook mean that investors may be unwise to lower their defences. We are keeping tail risk mitigation in portfolios. EM equities should […]

Effervescence, not exuberance

The key debate right now among economists revolves around how further will the expansionary phase of the US business cycle go. We are already over 100 months into the current phase (it started in July 2009), making it the third-longest period of post-World War II expansion. The longest was 119 months, between April 1991 and […]

Oil market tilted towards oversupply

  After the 30 November agreement between OPEC and Russia to extend oil production cuts until the end of 2018, it is worth looking again at the balance between oil supply and demand. The most recent data indicate that without continued willingness from OPEC to limit supply, the market will be naturally tilted towards oversupply […]

The Swiss economy is gaining momentum

Owing to weak GDP momentum in late 2016 and the first half of the year, the Swiss economy is likely to see relatively weak growth in 2017. Part of the weakness in GDP figures was due to specific factors. However, leading indicators, notably consumer confidence, manufacturing PMI and the KoF economic indicator, are running at […]

ECB preview: close to target…by 2020

The main talking points ahead of the ECB’s last policy meeting this year on 14 December are the new staff projections for growth and inflation as well as forward guidance on asset purchases. We expect higher oil prices to push ECB staff forecasts for inflation higher, to 1.4% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019. A […]

Slow wage growth to keep Fed on prudent normalisation track

The November employment report revealed another ‘Goldilocks’ set of conditions for investors: employment growth remained firm, especially in cyclical sectors like manufacturing and construction. At the same time, wage growth stayed soft – which means the Federal Reserve is unlikely to shift its current prudent communication on interest-rate hikes (although it is still very likely […]

Fed rate unlikely to move much above 2% next year

After the quarter-point rate rise expected on 13 December, the Federal Reserve will have pushed through the three rate hikes it signalled earlier in the year. For once, it has not under-delivered. Meanwhile, the gradual, ‘passive’ decline in the Fed’s balance sheet has been mostly ignored by markets. Broader financial conditions have eased this year […]

A crucial step towards US tax cuts

With the approval of the Senate tax bill in the early hours of Saturday 2 December, a key step has been taken toward tax cuts. The next chapter in the process is to reconcile this tax bill with the House of Representatives’ version, most likely in a ‘conference committee’. We are leaving our 2018 US […]

Euro area forecast to grow 2.3% in 2018

Taking account of stronger growth momentum, the carryover effect and upward revisions to past data, we have upgraded our euro area annual GDP growth forecasts to 2.3% both in 2017 and 2018. Our forecasts remain consistent with a very gradual slowdown in the quarterly pace of GDP growth, to 2% by end-2018. We view the […]

Further improvement in financial situation of euro area SMEs

Small and medium-sized entreprises (SMEs) are crucial for the euro area economy. They constitute about 99% of all euro area firms, employ around 70% of the workforce, and generate around 60% of value added. Their economic importance is above the euro area average in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece. Unlike large firms, which have access […]

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