The May issue of 'Perspectives' is now available

Central banks face test of credibility

Multi-Generational Wealth

The third edition of the Latam Family Office Master Class took place in Nassau from 4 to 6 April 2016, with more than 60 guests in attendance. This event was a great success, built around trends, workshops and exchanges of new ideas in the family office industry.

Brexit risks

Christophe Donay, Chief Strategist, explains how markets are pricing in the risk of Brexit, and what the economic impact would be.

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The ECB seeks balance between caution and confidence

Read full report here The next ECB meeting on 2 June in Vienna will be all about communication. Mario Draghi will need to strike a fine balance between confidence and cautiousness. While we expect the first upward revision to ECB staff projections since Quantitative Easing (QE) started in March 2015, including a rise in its […]

US improving, but constraints on Fed rate hikes

After a habitually disappointing first-quarter GDP figure of 0.5% (first estimate, to be revised on May 27), we expect a significant pick-up in US GDP to about 2.5% in the second quarter, not least because of strong consumer spending, which, according to our estimates, could grow by 3.0% in Q2 2016. Admittedly, consumer spending in […]

Eurogroup deal relieves pressure on Greece

Read full report here In the early hours of May 25, the Eurogroup, made up of euro area finance ministers, reached an agreement on Greece. The agreement will see the disbursement of the second tranche of loans (EUR 10.3bn) as part of Greece’s third bailout programme. In addition, a road map was drawn up that […]

Does Q1 mark start of upward earnings revisions?

Read full report here The first-quarter results season is almost over, and has been marked by positive surprises from Europe and, less so, the US, while Japanese earnings appear to have suffered from the strength of the yen. US and European net earnings came out 1.4% and 11.2% ahead of expectations, respectively, according to Bloomberg […]

Purchasing Manager Indices signal modest downside risks to near-term euro growth

Read full report here Following a strong performance in Q1, when real GDP expanded by 0.5% q-o-q (2.1% in annualised terms), the euro area economy was expected to slow down a gear to more sustainable levels of growth. The flash purchasing manager indices (PMI) released on May 23 may signal just that, although mixed news […]

Accommodative European policy mix helps offset political upheaval

We are entering a period of heightened political risk across many countries in Europe, marked by the progress of populism, as seen in the surge of support for non-mainstream parties. Not only do we have the Brexit referendum on June 23, but three days later there will be a re-run of the Spanish general election. […]

Surprisingly hawkish FOMC minutes unsettle observers

Read full report here The minutes of the April Federal Open Market Committee meeting published on 18 May surprised by their hawkish tone. The key phrase that unsettled observers was that should conditions continue to improve, “it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in […]

How much would Brexit cost the world economy?

Read full report here The relatively small size of the UK economy (2.4% of world GDP) means the global impact of Brexit would be almost negligible in strictly economic terms, according to global-VAR models of the kind used by central banks to assess the effect of specific events on the global economy. Unsurprisingly, the most […]

Core U.S. retail sales surge

Full report April US retail sales The US retail sales report for April was very encouraging, with core retail sales increasing strongly month on month (m-o-m) in April, while the figures for February and March figures were revised upward. Consumer spending growth should approach a strong rate of 3.0% q-o-q annualised in Q2. According to the […]

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