In mid-January, the era of Janet Yellen as Chairman of the US Federal Reserve begins. Her nomination has reassured investors, who see her as providing continuity in the monetary policy of the world’s most important central bank. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, at a new high of over 16,000 at the time of writing, reflects [...]
Industrial production: Second consecutive month of decline German industrial production including construction fell by 1.2% m-o-m in October, compared with consensus expectations of a 0.7% m-o-m increase, recording its second consecutive month of decline. The September figure was revised slightly up from -0.9% m-o-m to -0.7% m-o-m. As a result, the October figure was 1.2% [...]
Real personal consumption expenditure increased by a solid 0.3% m-o-m in October, above consensus expectations (+0.2%). As a result, between Q3 and October, consumer spending grew by a strong 2.7%, following a soft +1.4% q-o-q in Q3. Consumption growth seems to be picking up noticeably This pick-up in consumption growth in October is quite encouraging. [...]
Non-farm payroll employment rose by 203,000 m-o-m in November 2013, above consensus expectations (+185,000). October’s figure was revised marginally down (from +204,000 to +200,000), but September’s number slightly up (from +163,000 to +175,000). Net revisions thus cumulated to a small +8,000. As this series on job creation is often very volatile (see chart above), we [...]
The ISM manufacturing survey published on Monday once again delivered a positive surprise. The headline index inched up further from 56.4 in October to 57.3 in November, above consensus estimates (55.1), marking its highest level since April 2011. ISM manufacturing: widespread improvement in November The details of the reports showed that the improvement was quite [...]
Monetary developments weakened further in October. The annual growth rate of eurozone M3 monetary aggregate decelerated by 1.4% y-o-y after posting 2.0% y-o-y in September, below the consensus expectations (1.7% y-o-y) and marking the lowest annual growth rate since October 2011. Meanwhile, loans to the private sector, which were already negative (-1.6% y-o-y) in September, [...]
The flash eurozone manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) increased slightly from 51.3 in October to 51.5 in November, in line with consensus expectations. By contrast, the flash eurozone services PMI slipped by 0.7 points to 50.9 in November, weaker than consensus expectations (51.9). As a result, the composite PMI, which is a weighted average of [...]
Nominal total retail sales rose by 0.4% m-o-m in October, above consensus expectations of a 0.1% increase. Moreover, September’s figure was revised up from -0.1% to +0.0%. This increase was partly linked to a 1.4% m-o-m rise in nominal car sales. This kind of rebound was somewhat surprising as already published data on unit car [...]
Total industrial production contracted by 0.1% m-o-m in October, below consensus expectations of a 0.2% increase. However, this fall followed a strong increase in September (+0.7% revised up from +0,6%).
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