The July 2015 edition of Perspectives magazine is now available

Political uncertainties weighing on the markets

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United States: Consumption grew by almost 3.0% in Q2

In Q2 2015, US real GDP grew by 2.3% q-o-q annualised, slightly below consensus estimates (2.5%) and significantly short of our own estimates (3.0%). However, the Q1 growth rate was revised up markedly: from -0.2% to +0.6%. As a result, average growth in H1 2015 actually came out above consensus expectations and roughly in line […]

United States: Housing starts and home sales bounced back strongly in Q2

Following a weather-induced slump in Q1, existing home sales rebounded markedly in Q2. Today’s data showed that sales increased by a higher than expected 3.2% m-o-m in June, reaching an annualised pace of 5.49 million units, the highest level since February 2007, and 9.6% above sales recorded in June last year. On a quarterly basis, […]

Outlook for gold is negative, but short-term sell-off is overdone

The outlook for gold for the next months is not positive, as fears of Grexit have receded and a US rate rise is approaching. However, the scope of today’s sell-off looks overdone, and there has already been a sizeable rebound. Downside risk to the gold price over the next six months should be limited to […]

United States: Retail sales disappointing in June, but consumption robust in Q2

Nominal total retail sales dropped by 0.3% m-o-m in June, well below consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase. Moreover, May’s number was revised down from +1.2% to +1.0% and April’s from +0.2% to unchanged. Total sales were dented by a marked 1.3% m-o-m fall in sales of building materials (and garden equipment) and a 1.1% […]

Political uncertainties weighing on the markets

One answer to cope with political uncertainty: diversification Comparing investors to tightrope walkers is obvious: both are constantly striving to perform a tricky balancing-act. When making decisions, investors are seeking to find the ideal balance between generating a good return and shouldering risk against a backdrop of uncertainties.The two crises involving Greece and China remind […]

Greece: Sunday turns out not to have been the final deadline

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras has been given until Wednesday 15 July to pass into law an initial raft of measures and to have all the commitments included in the Eurogroup’s proposal endorsed by the Greek parliament. After that, formal negotiations on a third bailout agreement can commence. The size of the potential bailout could amount […]

Market focus will switch back to fundamentals after Greek deal

The deal agreed between eurozone leaders in Brussels this morning provides a basis for a third bailout package for Greece and for Greece to stay in the eurozone. An eventual new bailout agreement will have to be voted through by 10 national parliaments, including that of Greece. However, European leaders will have negotiated on the […]

Greece: a last-minute deal?

On Thursday night, the Greek government finally came up with a proposal that comes much closer to meeting creditors’ requests. The proposed mix of fiscal consolidation has been shifted away from tax increases to spending cuts. It also envisages earlier implementation, and the general tone is more constructive. The size of the bailout could amount […]

China: equity crash has further to run, but contagion will be limited

The surge in Chinese equities this year was not supported by economic fundamentals or by the outlook for Chinese corporates. There are pockets of opportunity, but we think the crash that began in June has further to run. However, the impact on China’s economic growth and on global stock markets will be small. We are […]

Germany: manufacturing orders recover in the second quarter

After the collapse registered in foreign orders in Q1, demand for German products has seemingly been recovering on the back of better global sentiment. Nevertheless, uncertainties surrounding Greece could dent order flows in the future if the crisis were to deepen. Industrial production depressed by construction and energy In May, German industrial production (including construction) […]

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