'Perspectives', September 2016

Private equity, an antidote to prospect of weak returns?

In conversation with Peter Diamandis

Entrepreneur Peter Diamandis presents his views on ‘moonshot thinking’, taking on challenges that had previously been seen as insoluble.
Pictet Report, summer 2016

Family brands

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Polarisation poses risks

Cesar Perez Ruiz, Chief Investment Officer at Pictet, assesses the aftermath of the Brexit vote and the implications of polarisation for investment strategy.

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Euro area business surveys point to strong start to Q4

Euro area business surveys just released show a solid start to the fourth quarter. More importantly still, these forward-looking indicators suggested that growth is likely to gain momentum in the months ahead, in particular in Germany. The good performance of the German manufacturing sector suggests that external demand might be less a drag than in […]

Spain: an end to 10 months of political deadlock

After 10 months of political impasse, Spain is set to have a new government at the end of this week. The decision by the Socialist party (PSOE) to abstain in the second parliament investiture vote clears the way for a minority government to be formed under prime minister Mariano Rajoy and thus avoids the need […]

ECB: rendezvous in December!

Nothing in today’s ECB press conference challenged our view that quantitative easing (QE) will be extended at the bank’s next policy meeting on 8 December. We continue to expect the bank to use this meeting to announce a six-month extension of its QE programme beyond March 2017, with monthly asset purchases maintained at their current […]

Chinese GDP forecast revised up for 2016

The latest data releases confirm our view that the Chinese economy is stabilising for the moment and that growth is on track to meet the government’s target of 6.5%-7% in 2016. The strong Q3 GDP reading leads us to revise our full-year GDP forecast for China to 6.7% from our previous forecast of 6.5%. Recent […]

Credit conditions improve in the euro area

Released on 18 October, the ECB’s third-quarter Bank Lending Survey– the first one to fully capture the effects of the 23 June Brexit referendum – remained broadly consistent with improving credit conditions. The BLS is of special significance in the current environment where commercial banks remain under a lot of pressure from all sides, whether […]

Exports fade, but construction continues to prop up Chinese growth

Headline exports for China fell by 10% in September year-over-year (y-o-y), compared with a 2.8% drop in August. This significant downturn was partly due to a high base-year effect. The notable increase in Chinese exports in September 2015 (even after seasonal adjustments) makes the year-over-year comparison particularly unfavourable. In our view, the weakness in China’s […]

Portugal may avoid ratings downgrade, but medium-term risks remain

Ratings agency DBRS is due to issue an update of its rating for Portugal on Friday, 21 October. Among the four rating agencies used by the ECB, only DBRS still has an investment-grade rating for Portuguese sovereign bonds (OTs). Even a one-notch downgrade by DRBS would push its rating of Portugal down to speculative status, […]

ECB preview — Bank has no shortage of options

We do not expect any new action to be announced at the ECB’s policy meeting on Thursday, but we do expect that the ECB will reiterate that the size of its asset-purchase programme and its duration are exclusively a function of the inflation outlook. We also expect that the bank will hammer home the message […]

Soft U.S. retail data conceals healthy consumer spending

Core retail sales in the U.S. rose by ‘only’ 0.1% month on month ( m-o-m) in September, below consensus expectations. Moreover, the July number was revised down. The result was that core retail sales were almost flat (+0.3% quarter on quarter (q-o-q) annualised in Q3), much lower than the 6.9% rise seen in Q2. Nevertheless, […]

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