Our concerns on Latam health

Brazil is driving concerns about the solidity of Latam economic health. This short graphic animation highlights the difference of growth between Brazil and China to illustrate the regional issues in Latin America.

Equities corrected. Now what?

In the last 12 sessions, equities have experienced a kind of mini crash, erasing the year-to-date gains on most indices. We need to take a step back and try to make some sense of the recent market action to define the strategy which will make or break performance for the last two months of the year.
The october issue of Perspectives magazine is now available

Equity markets undermined by mounting risks

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US GDP growth above expectations in Q3

Q3 GDP growth came in above expectations and prospects appear upbeat for Q4. Our forecasts for GDP growth in 2015 (3.0%) and monetary policy (first hike by mid-year) remain unchanged. In Q3 2014, US real GDP grew by a solid 3.5% q-o-q annualised, above consensus estimates (3.0%). This followed an even stronger growth rate of […]

Rising uncertainties throw up reasons why markets might consolidate

Financial markets in their various guises have all experienced mixed fortunes so far this year. This diversity looks set to persist as well on account of economic and monetary-policy cycles in the main economic blocs being at very different stages. This state of affairs is throwing up several factors of uncertainty which could trigger a […]

Euro area’s PMI surveys: weak forward looking components

In October, after two months of decline, the composite PMI recorded a modest rise thanks to an increase in the German manufacturing PMI. Nevertheless, the details showed that most of the forward-looking indicators painted a weak picture for the months ahead. Thus, the economic forecast for the euro area for the end of the year […]

Core eurozone states now a cause for concern

The economic lethargy gripping countries like Italy has been spreading as the weeks roll by to some core eurozone economies, the likes of France or Germany. In contrast, the US economy has been gaining momentum, delivering sound growth of around 3%.

Equity markets undermined by mounting risks

Asset management in the era of big data While the departure of the ‘bond king’ Bill Gross at Pimco has dominated headlines in the asset management industry, behind the scenes, leaders are worrying about possible future competition from tech giants such as Google, Facebook or Alibaba. But what is there to fear, a priori, from […]

United States: falling gasoline prices should boost consumer spending

Today’s retail sales report was weaker than expected. Apparently, consumption ended Q3 on a soft note. However, following the recent sharp fall in gasoline prices and its impact on real personal income, we believe growth in consumer spending will prove quite robust over the coming months. Nominal retail sales dropped by 0.3% m-o-m in September, […]

Euro area: industrial production figures point to fading momentum

Yesterday’s release puts some downside risk to our GDP growth projection of 0.2% q-o-q in Q3: after real GDP stagnated in Q2, industrial production data now points to a contraction in Q3. Euro area industrial production fell sharply in August, more than offsetting the previous monthly rise. Some temporary factors (the timing of German school […]

Germany: gloomy sentiment translated into activity deterioration

German hard data were disappointing in August, in line with the softening in business surveys (PMIs, IFO, ZEW and EC surveys). Although, some temporary factors (shift in school summer holidays, the rundown of car inventories) might have exaggerated August’s depressed data, the underlying trend appears to be very weak. Thus, the German economic forecast for […]

United States: unemployment falls below 6%

Non-farm payroll employment rose by 248,000 m-o-m in September, above consensus expectations (215,000). Moreover, August’s figure was revised up (from +142,000 to +180,000), as was the number for June (from 212,000 to 243,000). Net revisions therefore cumulated to a sizeable +69,000. Overall, employment growth has averaged a robust 224,000 per month in Q3, a reading […]

United States: ISM indices softer in September, but still at very robust levels

Both ISM indices weakened in September. However, they had reached very high levels in August. Overall, findings from these surveys point to strong economic growth. We remain quite optimistic on the US economy. The ISM manufacturing survey for September was published on Tuesday. The headline reading fell back from 59.0 in August to 56.6 in […]

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