Polarisation poses risks

Cesar Perez Ruiz, Chief Investment Officer at Pictet, assesses the aftermath of the Brexit vote and the implications of polarisation for investment strategy.
'Perspectives' July 2016

Investing in a post-Brexit world

The June 2016 issue of 'Perspectives' is now available

In the June 2016 issue of ‘Perspectives’

The May issue of 'Perspectives' is now available

Central banks face test of credibility

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Business activity resilient in France and Germany, but marked downturn in the UK

Today’s flash PMI surveys for the euro area were more resilient than expected. The euro area composite PMI index eased only marginally in July, from 53.1 to 52.9, according to Markit’s flash estimates. However, some forward-looking indicators point to weaker developments ahead. In the manufacturing sector, the sub-index of new orders fell and there was […]

ECB on hold, rendez-vous in September

The ECB remained on hold at its 21 July policy meeting. The main conclusion to be drawn from the meeting was that more stimulus is on the table for September, when new staff forecasts will be available. The only unexpected bit of news was ECB chairman’s Mario Draghi’s apparent support for the idea of a […]

US retail sales solid in June, very strong in Q2 overall

Core retail sales in the US increased by 0.5% month-on-month in June, above consensus expectations. Moreover, April and May numbers were revised up by a cumulative 0.1%. The result was that core retail sales grew by a very strong rate of 7.4% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) annualised in Q2 2016, much higher than the 2.8% rise seen […]

Chinese economy continues to rebalance

China’s GDP growth came in at 6.7% year-on-year in Q2 2016, unchanged from Q1 and slightly better than expectations. A detailed breakdown of the GDP number released on 15 July is still unavailable, but we can gain a better understanding of the state of the Chinese economy by looking at some other indicators that have […]

Where aspiration and consumer trends meet

 Read the full analysis on page 51 of the linked report In the Summer 2016 issue of Pictet Report, Pictet managers and analysts set out the megatrends behind the success of premium brands and the financial pillars that make them attractive to investors Premium brands have proved to be profitable long-term investments, offering strong revenue […]

Investing in a post-Brexit world

Brexit should not lead to a repeat of the financial crisis of 2007-2008. So argue Pictet analysts and economists in the July issue of Perspectives. Central banks are better prepared and banks are less leveraged. In the last resort, the European Central Bank can be expected to step in again should financial stress noticeably increase […]

Pick-up in U.S. job creation in June masks slowdown in Q2 as a whole

The US Labor Department’s employment report for June showed nonfarm payrolls rising by a strong 287,000 in June, well above consensus expectations. However, this followed a very weak number for May (11,000, revised down from 38,000). Job creation slowed noticeably in Q2 overall. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate bounced back from 4.7% in May to 4.9% […]

Brexit to have limited impact on the Swiss economy in the short term

While it is outside the EU, Switzerland is not immune to external shocks such as Brexit. The transmission channels are multiple (direct trade exposure, financial markets, confidence effect, political agenda…). That said, while the Swiss economy is mainly an export economy, its exposure to the UK is limited. Exports of goods to the UK represent […]

There’s life in Europe after Brexit—an early assessment

As a result of the Brexit vote, our in-house model points to a net drag on euro area GDP of around 0.50% over the next three years through direct trade and financial linkages. This is similar to the ECB’s own forecast. In addition, we have lowered our euro area GDP forecast to 1.5% in 2016 […]

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