Euro area, revisiting the past once again

GDP figures have been considerably revised in the euro area and in Switzerland in the wake of Q2 data, leading to mechanical changes in our growth forecasts for this year.

Revisions to GDP figures have been massive in the euro area and in Switzerland following the publication of Q2 GDP data. The resultant changes in our forecasts are mechanical, and do not reflect a change in our growth profile for H2 2017 and beyond.

Recent data released by Eurostat have resulted in a further upward revision in GDP figures, mechanically pushing up our own 2017 GDP forecast for the euro area from 1.9% to 2.1%. The revisions also have a slight impact on our 2018 growth forecast, which has been raised from 1.6% to 1.7%.

In Switzerland, real GDP growth in Q2 was below both our and consensus forecasts. In addition (and importantly for our 2017 annual GDP growth forecast), growth figures for the two previous quarters were significantly revised down. As a result, our GDP growth forecast for Switzerland has been lowered from 1.4% to 0.8% for 2017, while the 2018 forecast is left unchanged at 1.7%.

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