In 2014, year-to-date, 87% of active U.S. equity managers are under performing their Index. Does this mean that stock picking is dead? Not necessarily, but investors have to understand 3 fundamental equity investment strategies before deciding the route to follow.
Brazil is driving concerns about the solidity of Latam economic health. This short graphic animation highlights the difference of growth between Brazil and China to illustrate the regional issues in Latin America.
Uncertainty surrounding the upcoming vote on the Swiss gold initiative is putting upward pressure on the franc. The initiative is likely to be rejected. However, even if it is approved, we believe the Swiss National Bank (SNB) would succeed at doing “whatever it takes” for the 1.20 floor to hold, even if it means making […]
PMI survey readings came out weaker than expected in November, suggesting that euro area GDP growth is likely to remain tepid in Q4. The deterioration is characterised by a marked downturn in new orders. These developments tend to confirm our below-consensus GDP growth forecasts. This environment will add to pressure for the European authorities to do […]
Apart from the technological breakthroughs that helped ‘crack the code’ to unlock the reserves of shale oil, this phenomenon has proved most striking because of not just the unexpected nature of the revolution, but also the shockwaves sent through the world oil industry. Its repercussions will be a combination of both the temporary, on the […]
For once, October turned out to be tough month for equity markets. An abrupt upsurge of fears about economies led, in the space of just five trading days, to a 5.4% slump in the S&P 500 in mid-month. It has recovered handsomely since, bouncing back by 8.3%.
GDP showed a surprise contraction in Q3, confirming that the Japanese economy was badly hurt by the sales tax hike. Today, Prime Minister Abe postponed the second sales tax hike and called a snap election next month. Overall, we continue to expect some moderate recovery in the Japanese economy over the course of next year, […]
In contrast with the other leading economies in the developed world, Japan’s economy is enjoying the benefit of liquidity being pumped into it wholesale, which is influencing both the yen and shares in Tokyo. Japan stands out on account of the influential driver affecting how assets are behaving. Disparities in terms of economic growth argue […]
Central banks’ monetary policies are on very different trajectories in an increasingly unsettled and variable global economic climate. At a time when pressure is being cranked up on the European Central Bank (ECB) to push through non-conventional monetary-policy measures, the US Federal Reserve is on the brink of taking its first steps to start re-tightening […]
Today’s US retail sales report was encouraging. With these data in hand, solid expansion in employment and a sharp fall in gasoline prices, we believe consumption growth may well approach 3% in Q4. And it is likely to remain solid next year. Nominal retail sales rose by 0.3% m-o-m in October, slightly above consensus expectations […]
Better than expected Q3 figures and upwards Q2 revisions do not fundamentally change the overall outlook. The difficulties in reaching the consensus necessary to adopt a joint policy to exit this crisis mean that economic growth close to stagnation and a deflationary environment is likely to predominate in 2015. Stronger than expected Eurostat’s preliminary estimate showed […]