Non-farm payroll employment rose by 203,000 m-o-m in November 2013, above consensus expectations (+185,000). October’s figure was revised marginally down (from +204,000 to +200,000), but September’s number slightly up (from +163,000 to +175,000). Net revisions thus cumulated to a small +8,000. As this series on job creation is often very volatile (see chart above), we [...]
Monetary developments weakened further in October. The annual growth rate of eurozone M3 monetary aggregate decelerated by 1.4% y-o-y after posting 2.0% y-o-y in September, below the consensus expectations (1.7% y-o-y) and marking the lowest annual growth rate since October 2011. Meanwhile, loans to the private sector, which were already negative (-1.6% y-o-y) in September, [...]
The flash eurozone manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) increased slightly from 51.3 in October to 51.5 in November, in line with consensus expectations. By contrast, the flash eurozone services PMI slipped by 0.7 points to 50.9 in November, weaker than consensus expectations (51.9). As a result, the composite PMI, which is a weighted average of [...]
Nominal total retail sales rose by 0.4% m-o-m in October, above consensus expectations of a 0.1% increase. Moreover, September’s figure was revised up from -0.1% to +0.0%. This increase was partly linked to a 1.4% m-o-m rise in nominal car sales. This kind of rebound was somewhat surprising as already published data on unit car [...]
Total industrial production contracted by 0.1% m-o-m in October, below consensus expectations of a 0.2% increase. However, this fall followed a strong increase in September (+0.7% revised up from +0,6%).
The eurozone confirmed its exit from recession, expanding for a second consecutive quarter in Q3 even though some big economies recorded negative growth. Indeed, Eurostat’s preliminary estimate showed that eurozone real GDP grew by 0.1% q-o-q in Q3, (0.4% q-o-q annualised), in line with consensus expectations and after increasing by 0.3% q-o-q in Q2. Negative [...]
The third plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party’s 18th Congress failed to meet expectations, as the market was expecting a detailed set of breakthrough reforms to be unveiled. Reform expectations reflect the market’s preoccupation with China’s weakening growth, persistent imbalances (the dominant roles of investment and the state in the economy) and ballooning debt [...]
• Editorial outlook: A failure of momentum • Macroeconomics: Economic dynamics favourable overall • Strategy: Cyclical plays to the fore • Headline news from around the world: Monetary policies moving in divergent directions • Asset classes: Risk factors confirmed as taking over as driving forces • Topic of the month: Are hedge funds staging a comeback? [...]
Mario Draghi created something of a stir yesterday by announcing a 25bp rate cut on the refi rate and the marginal lending facility. The deflationary threat – even though no admission was made of this – was the central cause behind yesterday’s decision. Draghi explained that the Governing Council’s (GC) decision was motivated by evidence [...]
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