The September 2014 edition of Perspectives magazine is out.

World economy becoming increasingly desynchronised

Mario Draghi shows the world the ECB is geared towards action

Fresh measures aim at boosting the ECB’s balance sheet by some €1000bn.

USA: retail sales started Q3 on a soft note

We are not overly worried by today’s soft set of data. We forecast that consumption will grow by some 21⁄2% q-o-q annualised in Q3, a similar growth rate to what was recorded in Q2. And our scenario that economic growth will settle at around a robust 3% in H2 2014 remains unchanged.

ECB press conference

The euro area recovery will remain fragile. Further unconventional monetary policy measures will thus be required over a six-month period.

EU: sanctions against Russia

Russian crisis could dent the fragile euro area recovery through several channels: trade, energy and the banking sector.

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Mario Draghi shows the world the ECB is geared towards action

Mario Draghi surprised the world by announcing three sets of measures. Official interest rates are to be lowered by 10bp each, the ABS purchasing programme will start in October 2014, and a new covered bond purchase programme will also be launched. The Governing Council (GC) was not unanimous on yesterday’s decision. Despite dissension, the GC […]

Euro area: deflationary environment continues to prevail

In August, euro area headline inflation moved further away from the ECB target, recording its 90th consecutive month below 2%. Meanwhile, monetary aggregates and surveys on activity painted a weak picture, suggesting a fragile recovery after a disappointing H1. Thus, these developments show that deflationary forces are still at play in the euro area. A […]

USA: very disappointing consumption numbers in July

July consumption data were very disappointing. However, as fundamentals are pointing to robust growth in consumer spending, we are reluctant to cut our Q3 forecasts by too much. Overall, we remain optimistic on consumption and overall GDP growth in H2. Real consumer spending contracted in July Real personal consumption expenditure declined by 0.2% m-o-m in […]

ECB: Mario Draghi breaks with taboos

The ECB’s president, Mario Draghi, called for all available instruments to be used – demand side, supply side policies, structural reforms and monetary policy – to avoid the threat of the euro area falling apart. Indeed, the German Ifo business survey continued its downward trend in August, in line with other business surveys (PMI) and […]

Euro area: gloomy purchasing managers surveys in August

August’s PMI survey disappointed, with the exception of the French services sector, as sentiment deteriorated compared to July. Weak Q2 GDP figures, low inflation, surveys pointing south and a poor outlook put more pressure on the ECB to act. Manufacturing sector on a downward trend The euro area flash manufacturing PMI fell by 1.0 points […]

United States: housing market

Following their slump during the winter months, home sales and residential construction bounced back in Q2. Data available are pointing to further progress in Q3. We remain optimistic and believe things will continue to improve progressively in the US housing market. Substantial recovery in existing home sales Following a weather-induced slump in Q1, existing home […]

Euro area Q2 GDP growth: recovery fails to gain traction

Euro area GDP growth came in on a weak note again, failing to beat consensus expectations and thus reinforcing the view that the euro area economy remains fragile and subdued. Disappointing growth figures Eurostat’s preliminary estimate showed that euro area real GDP growth remained flat in Q2 (0.0% q-o-q, 0.2% q-o-q annualised), coming in lower […]

USA: retail sales started Q3 on a soft note

Today’s retail sales report was weaker than expected. Consumption started Q3 on a soft note. However, we remain relatively optimistic and expect consumer spending will grow by some 2 1⁄2% q-o-q annualised in Q3. Nominal retail sales remained unchanged m-o-m in July, below consensus expectations. July’s sales were negatively influenced by a 0.2% m-o-m fall […]

ECB press conference

As expected, Mario Draghi did not announce any new measures at today’s press conference. His reaction to recent disappointing economic news had, however, been widely awaited. He clearly appeared concerned about the impact of current geopolitical risks, in particular those from the Ukrainian crisis. The euro area recovery process is likely to remain fragile and […]

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