Despite a softer ISM manufacturing survey, any loss of GDP growth momentum is likely to be modest and temporary. Our scenario for solid GDP growth overall in 2014 (3.0% y-o-y in Q4 2014) remains unchanged.
Non-farm payroll employment rose by 175,000 m-o-m in February 2014, above consensus expectations (+149,000). Moreover, January’s figure was revised up (from +113,000 to +129,000), as was the number for December (from +75,000 to +84,000). Net revisions therefore cumulated to a modest +25,000 (see chart below). The fact that February’s headline job creation number was above […]
The Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States (previously known as the Flow of Funds statistics) for Q4 2013 were published yesterday. The information provided in the report includes a relatively comprehensive overview of credit developments, i.e. not only credit from commercial banks but also lending from other sources (corporate bonds, commercial paper, government, […]
The Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States (previously known as the Flow of Funds statistics) for Q4 2013 were published yesterday. The information provided in the report includes a relatively comprehensive overview of household aggregate finances, i.e. developments in assets, liabilities and net worth. Household assets continued to climb rapidly in Q4 2013 […]
Eurostat’s second estimate of Q4 euro area GDP growth was left unchanged from its previous estimate of 0.3% q-o-q growth (1.1% q-o-q annualised and 0.5% y-o-y), thus confirming the third consecutive quarter of positive growth. Overall, this implied a contraction of 0.4% in 2013, a slight improvement from the 0.6% contraction recorded in 2012. GDP […]
Real personal consumption expenditure increased by a solid 0.3% m-o-m in January, well above consensus expectations (+0.0%). However, to make monthly data consistent with the Q4 quarterly numbers revised down last week (from +3.3% q-o-q annualised to +2.6%), December’s figure was revised down from +0.2% m-o-m to -0.1%. Nevertheless, between Q4 2013 and January 2014, […]
After four months of consecutive rises, the euro area flash manufacturing PMI slipped by 1 point to 53.0 in February, below consensus expectations (54.0). In contrast, the euro area services PMI inched up marginally from 51.6 in January to 51.7 in February, below consensus expectations (51.9). As a result, the composite PMI which is the […]
In late January, several emerging markets were buffeted by tremors. On forex markets, the hardest hit currencies did manage to steady themselves thanks to interventions from central banks, such as in Turkey or India.
Nominal total retail sales fell by a heavy 0.4% m-o-m in January, well below consensus expectations of a flat reading. Moreover, the figures for December and November were revised down substantially. January sales were negatively influenced by a 2.3% m-o-m contraction in nominal auto sales – actually a surprisingly marked fall as already published data […]
Just as Ben Bernanke passes the baton to the new Chair of the Federal Reserve, increasing tensions in emerging markets have reminded us that the main structural risk remains deflation, not inflation as his detractors have always claimed.