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Expected returns from asset classes over the next 10 years are low. But an innovation shock could alter the picture.

Horizon: update of our expected returns from asset classes over the next 10 years

The Power of Brands

Successful brands can generate consistent and superior shareholder returns, explains Mayssa Al Midani, Financial Analyst at Pictet Wealth Management.

Multi-Generational Wealth

The latest edition of Pictet's Family Office Master Class took place in Singapore and gave new insights into family office experiences, challenges and solutions on how to further institutionalise and professionalise their setups.

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US ISM surveys: marked contrast between activity in manufacturing and services

Taken together, they point towards economic growth running above 3.5% in Q3. We continue to expect healthy growth in H2 2015 and 2016. The US economy is currently being confronted simultaneously with strong negative forces (much firmer dollar; weak foreign demand; stress on financial markets; negative impact of sharply lower oil prices on investment and […]

US employment: a clearly disappointing report

September’s report was weak on all fronts. Job creation came in below expectations, numbers for previous months were revised down, wages were flat m-o-m and the proxy for household wage incomes fell m-o-m. We now believe the most likely scenario is for the Fed to wait till March before hiking rates. Softer employment growth in […]

Hedge funds: the added value of long/short equity

The end of the summer proved rather turbulent when China weakness caused global markets to freefall. Whilst equities worldwide nosedived, long/short equity managers trimmed their exposures only marginally and took advantage of the sell-off to add to core positions or adapt their short books, outperforming markets in relative terms. Popular internet and healthcare names that […]

Euro area: Inflation turns negative in September

The ‘flash’ estimate of euro area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) confirmed what most economists, including at the European Central Bank (ECB), were expecting after the renewed fall in commodity prices over the summer, namely that inflation turned negative again in September. Having reached a trough at -0.6% y-o-y in January 2015, euro area […]

United States: consumption growth stronger than expected so far in Q3

We now expect consumption growth to reach some 3.3% in Q3 and remain robust thereafter. Consumption growth above expectations in August August data on household consumption and income were published today. Real consumption rose by a strong 0.4% m-o-m in August, slightly above consensus estimates (+0.3%). Already published data on retail sales and car sales […]

Euro area: credit flows improve further in August, albeit at a slower pace

One of the ECB’s main objectives throughout the crisis years – if not indeed the main one – has been to improve the transmission of monetary policy, with a clear focus on credit-constrained countries and sectors. Euro area SMEs, in particular, accounting for about 60% of the gross value added in the corporate sector and […]

Horizon: update of our expected returns from asset classes over the next 10 years

We have updated our estimates of expected returns in the new edition of Horizon. Expected returns for almost all asset classes are lower than in a historical comparison—in many cases substantially so. A traditional 60/40 portfolio (60% equities, 40% government bonds) would return just 6.9% annually with an innovation shock and 4.2% without, on our […]

European PMIs: negative fallout from China offset by domestic strength

Today’s flash estimates of euro area Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) provided the second set of business confidence indicators since concerns around China (re-)emerged in August. Despite further evidence of a marked slowdown in the Chinese economy – the September Caixin China Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to a 78-month low of 47.0 – euro area PMIs […]

A dovish Fed cranks up the pressure on the ECB

The ECB has come under pressure to ease its monetary stance again. This time around, the pressure has come largely from external shocks – sharper than expected slowdown in emerging-market growth, further decline in oil prices and renewed appreciation in the euro’s trade-weighted exchange rate. One question now is whether the Fed will eventually force […]

United States: the Fed held fire in September, but a December hike remains likely

We continue to forecast the first hike will come in December 2015, followed by a very slow pace of retightening next year. The Fed in ‘wait-and-see’ mode At yesterday’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed chose to leave its monetary policy unchanged. Three main reasons lay behind this decision: (1) a […]

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