Unless there is some exogenous shock, several asset classes should continue to be underpinned by advantageous fundamentals conducive to further rises in their values. Share indices in developed nations are, however, approaching stretched valuation levels.
After two months of decline, the PMI composite increased in July, supported by the solid performance of the services sector. July’s figure is above the Q2 average, suggesting that euro area activity gained some momentum at the start of Q3. In terms of countries, the divergence between German and French manufacturing sectors has widened further. […]
Central banks have been playing an especially crucial economic regulation role since 2009 and look set to continuing doing so for several years to come. The balance in the global economy, which is constantly shifting, hinges, to a large extent, on monetary policies being pursued by the world’s leading central banks. This equilibrium, in turn, […]
Equities: Rallies betraying greater discrimination After turning in an outstanding performance in recent months, European equities stalled somewhat in June as investors’ attention refocused on Japan. US and European equities have advanced by around 7% in the year to date even though, during June, Europe gave up all of its lead over Wall Street built […]
Last year when we compiled our scenario for the economy and financial markets for the year ahead in 2014, we had mooted two possible outcomes for equities in the developed world. Since the start of 2014, share prices on developed-nation markets have outpaced the forecast growth in current-year company profits. Adventurous scenario coming to pass for […]
The most striking feature marking the global macroeconomic landscape last month was the package of conventional and unconventional measures announced by the ECB on 5 June. The scale and ambition of these demonstrate the ECB is aiming now at new objectives going beyond inflation targeting. It heralds no less than a crucial sea-change in its […]
Eight years after its launch, the structural abnormality captured by the “Distrusted 50″ strategy remains intact and a hedged implementation that mitigates exposure to market risk still makes much sense.
Disappointing industrial production Euro area industrial production (excluding construction) collapsed in May (-1.1% m-o-m). The April figure was slightly revised down by 0.1pp to 0.7% m-o-m. Consequently, industrial production in April and May on average fell by 0.1% q-o-q compared with Q1. Weak performance in the four largest economies In terms of geographical developments, the largest […]
Napoleon is reported to have said that when China awoke, the world would shake. This has proved prophetic: since turning outwards 35 years ago, the Chinese economy has grown at an unprecedented rate and is expected to become the world’s largest economy within the next two decades. Other emerging markets in Asia have also grown […]
Thursday’s press conference focused around three main themes. First, technical information regarding the TLTROs (Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations). Second, the change in the schedule for monetary policy meetings and the news that their minutes will be published. Third, reaction to the conclusions of the BIS annual report. TLTROs: not a silver bullet but potentially helpful […]