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On the eve of 2015, oil and the US economy are already dictating the shape of investment

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Switzerland: the SNB introduces negative interest rates

Following renewed upward pressure on the Swiss franc, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to introduce negative interest rates on sight deposits. Although this should help to ease pressure on the franc, the main weapon to defend the floor remains FX interventions. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that the SNB will succeed in ensuring that the […]

US Federal Reserve: a first hike by mid-2015 remains the most likely scenario

The Fed was able to phase out the “considerable time” phrase, while also giving a rather neutral signal. Nevertheless, there was actually not much change in the guidance for the timing of the first rate hike. We continue to expect this first move to take place by mid-2015. A carefully managed change in guidance The […]

Greece: The die is cast*

* “Ἀνερρίφθω κύβος”, Julius Caesar’s quote from Menander, the Greek dramatist, when crossing the Rubicon and translated into the famous latin “Alea iacta est”. Background Encouraged by favourable financial markets in 2014, Greek Prime Minister Antónis took a gamble. He thought it would be possible for Greece to make a soft exit from the adjustment […]

Art and entertainment

The creative world of arts, crafts and entertainment is often seen as differing from more conventional business sectors. Yet as this issue of Pictet Report demonstrates, those who are successful in their chosen fields share many of the characteristics of successful entrepreneurs. They work very hard, they are passionate about what they do, they pursue […]

Germany: October data suggest end of industrial recession

After the decline in Q3, hard data brightened in October. Overall, industrial activity and orders figures appear more resilient than was suggested by surveys (Ifo, PMI). The set of data points to subdued GDP growth in Q4 for Germany, in line with our scenario. However, the 2015 German economic outlook remains fairly favourable. The pace of […]

United States: ISM indices quite strong once again in November

The ISM manufacturing index eased slightly m-o-m in November, while its non-manufacturing counterpart bounced back sharply. Together they continue to point to strong economic growth. We remain quite optimistic on the US economy. The ISM manufacturing survey for November was published last Monday. The headline reading remained surprisingly high. Admittedly, it eased back from 59.0 in […]

US employment report: strong job creation bullish for economic growth

In November, job creation was at its highest since January 2012, while the unemployment rate remained stable and m-o-m increases in wages picked up. This further endorses our bullish view on the US economy. However, we do not believe that it will alter significantly the FOMC’s analysis of the economic situation. Non-farm payroll employment rose […]

ECB press conference: “See you next year”

Mario Draghi’s press conference has been greeted by some disappointment. Yesterday, the ECB president seemed to contradict his own words that “further measures were needed without delay”. As expected, the ECB’s economic forecasts have been revised sharply downward, particularly for 2015. Inflation risks will be revised further down if the oil price stabilises at current levels, […]

Euro area: Juncker’s investment plan, not a game changer for 2015

Last week, Jean-Claude Juncker, the new European Commission President, unveiled his €315bn investment plan to the European Parliament. Previous EU initiatives to stimulate investment have often suffered from big headline figure announcements but a lack of fresh money. As a result, they have generally disappointed. The most recent example was the 2012 “Compact for Growth […]

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