'Perspectives', December 2016

From deflation to reflation, from bonds to equities

Into the Unknown

Cesar Perez Ruiz, Chief Investment Officer at Pictet, on what Donald Trump’s presidential election win will mean for emerging investment trends.
'Perspectives', November 2016

Time is ripe for change in monetary policy style

The Next Generation

The third Next Generation event took place in Geneva with 50 Next Gens in attendance from 22 different nationalities. The event was a great success, focusing both on the challenges and solutions the rising generation face in todays complex environment.

In Conversation With Sally Osberg

In this conversation, Sally Osberg explains the approach taken by the Skoll Foundation and how they work with social entrepreneurs.

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Slower for (much) longer: ECB extends QE

The ECB made the following announcements at its 8 December meeting: • QE extension: asset purchases will be continued for an extra nine months, at a pace of EUR60 bn month from April to December 2017 (or beyond, if necessary), with an option to increase the size and/or duration of purchases if “the outlook becomes […]

Signs of life in Japanese inflation

The labour survey for October shows that wage growth remains sluggish in Japan, despite increasing signs of tightness in the labour market. Nonetheless, inflation in Japan may start to move higher on account of external factors such as the exchange rate and commodity prices. Japanese workers’ cash earnings rose by just 0.1% year-over-year in October. […]

Global sentiment indicator supports growth scenario

Global sentiment improved slightly in November, to 52.1 from 52.0 in October, according to Markit’s global Purchasing Manager Index (PMI). This is the third monthly improvement in a row. One has to look back to August 2014 to find a higher level. Advanced economies are among the more upbeat. Business sentiment in November was highest […]

What next for Italy after referendum?

The Italian referendum on Senate reform was rejected on 4 December by a surprisingly wide margin (59% versus 41%) on high voter turnout. In the short run, the main risk is that rejection of the government-backed referendum will render a market-based recapitalisation of the Italian banking sector more difficult. Italian banks will remain under considerable […]

Healthy U.S. jobs report points to early rate hike

US non-farm payroll employment rose by a healthy 178,000 month-on-month (m-o-m) in November, in line with consensus expectations. Unexpectedly, the US unemployment rate fell further in November, to 4.6% from 4.9% in October, reaching its lowest level in more than nine years. At 4.6%, the US unemployment rate is now below the median rate of […]

Search for policy flexibility poses dilemma for ECB

The European Central Bank (ECB) faces a communication dilemma ahead of its 8 December meeting. Amid growing evidence of a more robust recovery and improved policy transmission, there is a case for a reduction in the pace of asset purchases at some point in 2017. However, signalling an eventual tapering of asset purchases now would […]

Arbitraging between equity investment strategies

The US Value equity strategy’s outperformance has accelerated since the US elections on November 8. Over the 15 trading days following the elections, our Value index returned 9.8% (in US dollars), compared with 8.2% during the preceding six months. Current economic and equity market dynamics reveal an opportunity to arbitrage between two distinct equity investment strategies: […]

U.S. growth to slow in H1 2017 before rising again in H2

US GDP growth was revised up from 2.9% to 3.2% for the third quarter. The main reason was a higher estimate of growth in consumer spending. Turning to Q4, economic data published so far have been mixed. Data on consumption in October were a bit disappointing. And advance estimates for the trade deficit and inventories […]

The Family Consilium 2016

This Chronicle presents the highlights from The Family Consilium held in Gstaad in June 2016. Topics covered include: emerging disruptions in geopolitics, disruptive forces in technology, how investors might respond to the changing financial environment, and strategies to manage the challenges of passing wealth from one generation to the next. Other highlights are Elif Shafak, […]

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