Brexit risks

Christophe Donay, Chief Strategist, explains how markets are pricing in the risk of Brexit, and what the economic impact would be.
The April 2016 edition of 'Perspectives' is now available

China: Something has to give

Playing the rebound in equity markets

Alexandre Tavazzi, Chief Equity Strategist, explains the key choices faced by investors seeking to profit from the current market rebound.
The March 2016 edition of "Perspectives" is now available

Financial markets looking for a second wind

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Domestic demand fuels strong Q1 euro area growth

Read the full report here Euro area GDP rose by 0.6% quarter on quarter (q-o-q) in Q1, in line with our above-consensus forecast. Evidence from high-frequency data suggests that domestic demand was the main engine of growth once again, supported by a strong rebound in both household consumption and corporate investment spending. We believe that […]

US Q1 growth disappoints, but improvement likely

Read the full report here US real GDP, buffeted by numerous headwinds and lacking momentum, grew by a feeble 0.5% in Q1 2016. Seasonality factors mean the first-quarter GDP growth rate can be very volatile, but Q1 growth was a clear disappointment overall, particularly as growth in Q4 2015 was already soft (+1.4% q-o-q annualised). […]

Euro area credit growth slowed in March, but Q1 very strong overall

Read the full report here The expansion of bank credit to euro area non-financial corporations slowed in March, to EUR 1bn compared with a rise of EUR 24bn in January and EUR 19bn in February. By contrast, credit to households continued to increase at a decent pace in March and was slightly stronger than in previous […]

What prospects for gold prices?

Read the full report here After the hefty gains made by gold this year, the attached Flash Note examines what might lie ahead for the precious metal by analysing the five key underlying drivers of gold prices: financial stress, inflation, real interest rates, the US dollar and supply and demand. Our conclusions are as follows: […]

Deflationary pressures slacken in the euro area

Read the full report here According to Markit’s preliminary estimates, the euro area composite PMI decreased slightly from 53.1 in March to 53.0 in April. Nevertheless, the employment component improved in both the manufacturing and services sectors. Looking at forward-looking components, the manufacturing new export orders and new business indices were also up. Overall, in […]

The ECB focuses on policy implementation and reaffirms its independence

Read the full report here The 10 March ECB meeting was all about bold action and strong signals. The main message from the 21 April meeting was one of continuity, consistency and cohesion. The ECB’s assessment of economic conditions has not changed materially in the past few weeks, with the view that existing and upcoming […]

Navigating through rollercoaster markets

April insights from Pictet Wealth Management's Asset Allocation & Macro Research team The current decline in US profit margins would usually herald a recession. The continued decline in earnings expectations is a concern, and suggests limited upside for equities. But if the resources sector is stripped out, the trend is much less worrying. Moreover, fears of […]

Banking crisis? What banking crisis?

Read the full report here The ECB’s April Bank Lending Survey (BLS), conducted among 141 banks between 11 and 30 March 2016 and released today, revealed a net easing of credit conditions for companies for the eighth consecutive quarter. The demand for loans from non-financial corporations actually moderated somewhat in comparison with Q4, but levels are […]

ECB policy meeting: different things to worry about

Read the full report here The ECB is facing a complex, albeit not completely negative, macro-financial environment following its impressive policy package announcement on 10 March. Nevertheless, barring some new shock, beyond some fine-tuning measures, the ECB should remain on hold at its next policy meeting on 21 April. Instead, we expect different aspects of […]

Euro Area Politics: It’ll Be Alright on the Night

Read the full report Europe is facing a number of risk events amid a deteriorating political and social backdrop (see Table 1 below for the most important ones), including the ongoing migrant crisis, the Brexit referendum, the first review of Greece’s third bailout programme, and the prospects of new elections in Spain. There is no stable […]

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