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US core retail sales: disappointing once again

Today’s retail sales report was once again disappointing. However, core retail sales did show some modest improvement in April compared with Q1, and we remain optimistic about future consumption growth. Nominal total retail sales were flat m-o-m in April, below consensus expectations for a 0.2% increase. However, March’s number was revised up from +0.9% to +1.1%. […]

US job creation in line with expectations in April

US job creation was healthier in April 2015 than in March, and the unemployment rate declined further. However, growth in labour income seems to have lost some of its momentum. Non-farm payroll employment rose by a more robust 223,000 m-o-m in April 2015, in line with consensus expectations (228,000). However, March’s figure was revised down […]

United States: ISM indices pointing to robust growth so far in the second quarter

The ISM Manufacturing index stabilised m-o-m in April, whereas its Non-Manufacturing counterpart climbed noticeably. Together, they point to US economic growth running at slightly more than 3.5% so far in Q2. We remain optimistic on the US economy. The ISM Manufacturing index stabilised in April The ISM Manufacturing survey for April 2015 was published on […]

United States: another weather-induced sharp slowdown in Q1 2015

Impacted by temporary factors, GDP almost stagnated q-o-q in Q1 2015. Although data available for March and April have been somewhat disappointing so far, we continue to expect a marked pick-up in growth in Q2 and expect growth to remain solid in H2 2015. In Q1 2015, US real GDP grew by a meagre 0.2% […]

United States: reasonably upbeat prospects for the housing market

Residential construction and home sales were negatively impacted by the particularly inclement winter weather. However, most housing sector data available for March and April are pointing to a distinct revival in Q2. We remain optimistic and believe things will continue to improve progressively in the US housing market. Marked recovery in existing home sales in […]

United States: core inflation unlikely to pick up further in 2015

Core inflation inched up from 1.7% y-o-y in February to 1.8% in March. The slack in the labour market is diminishing rapidly and deflation is not really a risk in the US. However, with a much higher dollar and the indirect impact of lower oil prices, we believe core inflation will ease back slightly during […]

United States: growth in consumption disappointing so far in the first quarter

Real disposable income surged in January-February but, impacted by particularly inclement weather, growth in consumption was much less upbeat. It probably slowed from 4.4% in Q4 to around 2.0% in Q1. However, with solid fundamentals and a likely decline in the saving rate, we remain quite optimistic on US consumption. Surge in real disposable income, […]

United States: the FOMC has given itself more flexibility

Overall, the FOMC's meeting was clearly dovish. We expect the first hike to take place in September 2015, followed by a pause until early next year. Calendar guidance abandoned Admittedly, the most important question mark regarding last week’s FOMC meeting was what the FOMC would do with the wording saying that the Committee judges that it can […]

United States: another month of disappointing retail sales data

Today’s retail sales report was disappointing. Nevertheless, this set of data was a poor indicator of overall consumption recently and fundamentals are very upbeat. We therefore remain quite optimistic on consumption growth in Q1. Nominal retail sales were surprisingly weak, for the second month in a row. They fell by a heavy 0.8% m-o-m in […]

USA: ISM indices still pointing to healthy growth overall in January

The ISM manufacturing index dropped further m-o-m in January, whilst its non-manufacturing counterpart bounced back slightly. Together they continue to point to healthy economic growth. We remain quite optimistic on the US economy. The ISM manufacturing index fell further in January The ISM manufacturing survey for January 2015 was published on Monday. The headline reading […]

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