Author Archive

United States: Consumption grew by almost 3.0% in Q2

In Q2 2015, US real GDP grew by 2.3% q-o-q annualised, slightly below consensus estimates (2.5%) and significantly short of our own estimates (3.0%). However, the Q1 growth rate was revised up markedly: from -0.2% to +0.6%. As a result, average growth in H1 2015 actually came out above consensus expectations and roughly in line […]

United States: Housing starts and home sales bounced back strongly in Q2

Following a weather-induced slump in Q1, existing home sales rebounded markedly in Q2. Today’s data showed that sales increased by a higher than expected 3.2% m-o-m in June, reaching an annualised pace of 5.49 million units, the highest level since February 2007, and 9.6% above sales recorded in June last year. On a quarterly basis, […]

United States: Retail sales disappointing in June, but consumption robust in Q2

Nominal total retail sales dropped by 0.3% m-o-m in June, well below consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase. Moreover, May’s number was revised down from +1.2% to +1.0% and April’s from +0.2% to unchanged. Total sales were dented by a marked 1.3% m-o-m fall in sales of building materials (and garden equipment) and a 1.1% […]

US monetary policy: a first hike by September 2015 remains the most likely scenario

At the FOMC meeting yesterday, Chair Janet Yellen repeated that a rate hike was likely later this year, but that the final decision was highly data-dependent. We continue to expect the first hike to take place in September 2015, followed by a pause until early next year. Forward guidance remains vague In our view, yesterday’s […]

United States: core retail sales bounced back strongly in May

Today’s retail sales report was very encouraging after quite a few months of repeated disappointment. Core retail sales bounced back strongly in May whilst data for March and April were revised markedly up. We remain optimistic about future consumption growth. Nominal total retail sales increased by a strong 1.2% m-o-m in May, in line with […]

United States: job creation picked up in May

In May 2015, job creation bounced back markedly and wage increases picked up. This lends support to our scenario that stronger economic growth will resume in Q2 and that the Fed is likely to act in September. Non-farm payroll employment rose by a robust 280,000 m-o-m in May 2015, well above consensus expectations (226,000). Moreover, […]

US car sales reached a new cycle-high in May

Consumption stagnated m-o-m in April, but car sales surged in May. With solid fundamentals and a likely decline in the saving rate, we remain quite optimistic on US consumption: it should grow by around 2.5% in Q2 and probably faster than that in H2. Another month of disappointing consumption in April Data on retail sales […]

US ISM indices pointing to robust growth in the second quarter

The ISM Manufacturing index bounced back a little in May, whereas its Non-Manufacturing counterpart fell noticeably m-o-m. Nevertheless, together, they point to economic growth running at around 3.3% so far in Q2. We continue to expect stronger growth to resume in Q2 and H2 2015. The ISM Manufacturing index bounced back in May The ISM […]

United States: first quarter GDP now showing a contraction of 0.7% (q-o-q)

First-quarter GDP has been revised sharply down and is now showing a contraction. However, this disappointing number can be explained, to a large extent, by temporary factors. We continue to expect stronger growth to resume in Q2 and H2 2015. As widely expected, the already weak real GDP for Q1 has been revised sharply downwards. According […]

US core retail sales: disappointing once again

Today’s retail sales report was once again disappointing. However, core retail sales did show some modest improvement in April compared with Q1, and we remain optimistic about future consumption growth. Nominal total retail sales were flat m-o-m in April, below consensus expectations for a 0.2% increase. However, March’s number was revised up from +0.9% to +1.1%. […]

  1. 1
  2. 2
  3. 3
  4. 4
  5. 5
  6. 6
  7. 7
  8. ...
  9. 20

Our site and the information it contains is not intended to US citizens, US residents, Canadian citizens or Canadian residents.

I am not a US citizen, US resident, Canadian citizen and/or Canadian resident
I am a US citizen, US resident, Canadian citizen and/or Canadian resident