Author Archive

United States: falling gasoline prices should boost consumer spending

Today’s retail sales report was weaker than expected. Apparently, consumption ended Q3 on a soft note. However, following the recent sharp fall in gasoline prices and its impact on real personal income, we believe growth in consumer spending will prove quite robust over the coming months. Nominal retail sales dropped by 0.3% m-o-m in September, […]

United States: unemployment falls below 6%

Non-farm payroll employment rose by 248,000 m-o-m in September, above consensus expectations (215,000). Moreover, August’s figure was revised up (from +142,000 to +180,000), as was the number for June (from 212,000 to 243,000). Net revisions therefore cumulated to a sizeable +69,000. Overall, employment growth has averaged a robust 224,000 per month in Q3, a reading […]

United States: ISM indices softer in September, but still at very robust levels

Both ISM indices weakened in September. However, they had reached very high levels in August. Overall, findings from these surveys point to strong economic growth. We remain quite optimistic on the US economy. The ISM manufacturing survey for September was published on Tuesday. The headline reading fell back from 59.0 in August to 56.6 in […]

US consumer spending bounced back strongly in August

Real personal consumption expenditure increased by a strong 0.5% m-o-m in August, in line with consensus expectations. Moreover, July’s fall was revised for the better (from -0.2% m-o-m to -0.1%), whilst June’s increase was revised up from +0.2% to +0.3%. As a result, between Q2 and July-August, consumer spending grew by 1.9% annualised, admittedly a […]

USA: very disappointing consumption numbers in July

July consumption data were very disappointing. However, as fundamentals are pointing to robust growth in consumer spending, we are reluctant to cut our Q3 forecasts by too much. Overall, we remain optimistic on consumption and overall GDP growth in H2. Real consumer spending contracted in July Real personal consumption expenditure declined by 0.2% m-o-m in […]

United States: housing market

Following their slump during the winter months, home sales and residential construction bounced back in Q2. Data available are pointing to further progress in Q3. We remain optimistic and believe things will continue to improve progressively in the US housing market. Substantial recovery in existing home sales Following a weather-induced slump in Q1, existing home […]

USA: retail sales started Q3 on a soft note

Today’s retail sales report was weaker than expected. Consumption started Q3 on a soft note. However, we remain relatively optimistic and expect consumer spending will grow by some 2 1⁄2% q-o-q annualised in Q3. Nominal retail sales remained unchanged m-o-m in July, below consensus expectations. July’s sales were negatively influenced by a 0.2% m-o-m fall […]

USA: ISM indices rose further markedly in July

The ISM surveys – together with most other economic data published recently – show encouraging signs that the US economy continued to grow robustly in July. We remain quite optimistic for Q3 growth. The ISM manufacturing survey for the month of July was published last Friday. The headline index climbed from 55.3 in June to […]

US employment report: job creation robust once again in July

In July, job creation was robust, although slightly below expectations. The unemployment rate bounced back but the downward trend appears intact. Together with other data available for July, the employment report gave further credence to our scenario that economic growth will settle at around 3% in H2. We remain optimistic overall on the US economy. […]

USA: GDP growth well above expectations in Q2

Q2 GDP growth was well above expectations, and growth in Q1 and H2 2013 were revised for the better. Despite these upbeat numbers, average GDP growth was certainly very weak overall in H1. Nevertheless, this set of data most probably understates the health of the US economy. Most other economic indicators were far more upbeat […]

  1. 1
  2. 2
  3. 3
  4. 4
  5. 5
  6. 6
  7. 7
  8. ...
  9. 17

Our site and the information it contains is not intended to US citizens, US residents, Canadian citizens or Canadian residents.

I am not a US citizen, US resident, Canadian citizen and/or Canadian resident
I am a US citizen, US resident, Canadian citizen and/or Canadian resident