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United States: consumption growth still likely to settle at some 3.0% in Q3

July data on household consumption and income were published today. Real consumption rose by 0.2% m-o-m in July, slightly below consensus estimates (+0.3%). Already published data on retail sales and car sales for July had been quite upbeat, suggesting a more solid reading. However, in line with the revised Q2 GDP data published yesterday, previous […]

United States: second quarter GDP growth revised up to 3.7%

Q2 GDP has been revised markedly upwards to now show a growth rate of 3.7% q-o-q annualised. We stand by our expectation for robust growth to continue in H2 2015. Real GDP for Q2 has been revised significantly upwards. According to the second estimate published today, GDP grew by 3.7% q-o-q annualised, an outcome more […]

United States: retail sales were solid in July and Q2 data were revised up

Today’s retail sales report was encouraging. Consumption growth for Q2 should be revised up, and the Q3 number is likely to come out at around a robust 3.0%. We remain optimistic about future consumption growth. Nominal total retail sales increased by a strong 0.6% m-o-m in July, in line with consensus expectations. Moreover, June’s number […]

United States: Chinese currency’s fall is impacting US monetary conditions

The devaluation in the Chinese yuan this week implies an even stronger trade-weighted dollar and tighter monetary conditions. This lends further modest weight to our argument that the Fed will probably wait until December before hiking rates. However, this remains a very close call. Substantive second leg in the dollar’s rise Over the past three […]

United States: job creation remained healthy in July

In July 2015, employment continued to increase at a healthy pace, while the unemployment rate remained stable at the low level reached in June. This lends support to our scenario that economic growth will pick up in H2 and that the Fed is likely to act before the year is out. Non-farm payroll employment rose […]

United States: ISM surveys point to stronger economic growth

The ISM Manufacturing index dropped back in July The ISM Manufacturing survey for July 2015 was published on Monday this week. The headline reading fell back from 53.5 in June to 52.7 in July, below consensus expectations (53.5). However, this modest decline follows two consecutive months of rebound. At 52.7 in July, this yardstick is […]

United States: Car sales bounced back in July

Consumption flat m-o-m in June June data on household consumption and income – published yesterday – were less important than usual because similar data for the whole of Q2 had already been published last week together with the GDP figure (see our Flash Note published on 31 July). Real consumption was flat m-o-m in June, […]

United States: Wage increases were surprisingly weak in Q2 2015

Friday saw some key data being published: the quarterly Employment Cost Index (ECI), admittedly the most reliable measure of wages and salaries. With the Fed in ‘data-dependency’ mode, uncertainty over inflation prospects and surprisingly weak average hourly earnings numbers in June – the other main statistic on wages – the publication of these Q2 ECI […]

United States: Consumption grew by almost 3.0% in Q2

In Q2 2015, US real GDP grew by 2.3% q-o-q annualised, slightly below consensus estimates (2.5%) and significantly short of our own estimates (3.0%). However, the Q1 growth rate was revised up markedly: from -0.2% to +0.6%. As a result, average growth in H1 2015 actually came out above consensus expectations and roughly in line […]

United States: Housing starts and home sales bounced back strongly in Q2

Following a weather-induced slump in Q1, existing home sales rebounded markedly in Q2. Today’s data showed that sales increased by a higher than expected 3.2% m-o-m in June, reaching an annualised pace of 5.49 million units, the highest level since February 2007, and 9.6% above sales recorded in June last year. On a quarterly basis, […]

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