Author Archive

China: PMIs suggest moderation in momentum in Q1

China’s official manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) came in at 51.3 in January, down slightly from December (51.6). The Markit PMI (also known as the Caixin PMI) stayed at 51.5, the same as in the previous month. Meanwhile, the official non-manufacturing PMI rose slightly in January. The official composite index, which is a weighted average […]

China: 2018 GDP forecast revised up

The Chinese economy ended 2017 on a strong note, rising 1.6% over the previous quarter and, growing by 6.9% in real terms over 2017 as a whole, thus beating the consensus forecast as well as our own estimate (both at 6.8%).  The strong 2017 growth number marks the first full-year acceleration in the Chinese economy […]

China: FX reserves rise again

According to the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China’s FX reserves amounted to USD3.14 trillion at end-December 2017, up USD20.7 billion from the previous month. This marks the 11th consecutive monthly increase in Chinese FX reserves since February 2017. In full-year 2017, Chinese FX reserves increased by USD129.4 billion, in contrast with a drop […]

The BoJ is sticking to monetary easing

After its Monetary Policy Meeting of December 21, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced its intention to keep its current monetary easing programme intact. The BoJ will continue with its “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control”, aiming to achieve and overshoot the core inflation target of 2%. The reason for the BoJ […]

China government may tolerate lower growth

The latest Chinese economic data for October indicate the moderate deceleration in growth already seen in Q3 is extending into Q4. Both exports and domestic demand have slowed, particularly in terms of fixed-asset investment. National fiscal spending has shown signs of slowing, and central government has cut off support for some regional infrastructure projects on […]

Latest Japan GDP data point to moderate deceleration

  Japanese GDP for Q3 came in at JPY545.8 trillion annualised, rising 1.4% q-o-q and 1.7% y-o-y in real terms. The data are broadly consistent with our view of a moderate deceleration of the Japanese economy in H2 after a strong Q2. The positive growth in Q3 marks the seventh consecutive quarter of economic expansion […]

China: Xi might stay beyond a second term

The Central Committee of the Chinese communist party convened for the first time on 25 October to elect the new Politburo and the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC). Unsurprisingly, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang were both re-elected as members of the PSC, and Xi was reappointed general secretary of the Party. The other five seats went […]

President Xi reveals grand plans for China

This week, in a speech to the 19th Communist Party Congress, Xi Jinping, party general secretary and the president of China, outlined his vision for China through to 2050. Xi argued that China has embarked on a new stage of development. On the political front, he believed that China has become stronger and will move […]

Chinese growth forecast remains intact

Chinese GDP for Q3 2017 came in at Rmb21.2 trillion (USD3.2 trillion), growing by 6.8% y-o-y in real terms, slightly below the pace of expansion in the first half of the year (6.9%). Several points are worth highlighting. First, China’s economic transition is well underway. The tertiary sector, mainly services, continues to be the main […]

PBOC aims to stave off potential liquidity shock

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced on 30 September that it would lower the required reserve ratio (RRR) for selected banks by 50-150 basis points (bps) from the beginning of next January. Specifically, banks eligible for a 50 bps cut to their RRR will include those that have at least 1.5% of their existing […]

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