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China GDP beats expectations, but no change in core scenario

Chinese GDP grew 6.9% year-over-year (y-o-y) in real terms in Q1 2017, up from 6.8% in Q4 2016 and 6.7% for the full year of 2016. The strong  growth figure beats both the consensus forecast (6.8%) and our own estimate (6.7%).  In nominal terms, the rise in GDP was even more significant, growing 11.8% over […]

New tech city could help China’s economic transition

At the beginning of April, the Chinese government caught people by surprise by unveiling plans to create the Xiong’an New Area, a new development zone about 130 kilometres south of Beijing. According to the announcement, the first phase of development will cover an area of 100 square kilometres, with long-term plans to expand it to […]

Momentum remains strong in China, but headwinds ahead

The official PMI figures for manufacturing and nonmanufacturing rose again in March, extending a rebound that has been evident since early 2016. Sub-indices also remain on a solid upward trend, with the production and new order sub-indices reaching their highest levels since mid-2014 and the new export order index at its highest level since March 2012. […]

China: growth looking good for first half before possible deceleration in second

The first batch of hard data on domestic activity for 2017 points to strong momentum in fixed-asset investment (FAI) and industrial production, while consumption has been on the weak side. In the first two months of 2017, FAI grew by 8.9% y-o-y, compared with 6.5% for December 2016 and 8.1% for 2016 as a whole. As […]

Upbeat Chinese PMI point to strong momentum

China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in February came in at 51.6, compared with 51.3 in January, while the Caixin (Markit) manufacturing PMI rose by 0.7 from the previous month to 51.7. The official non-manufacturing PMI in February remained an elevated 54.2, only slightly below the reading of 54.6 in January. In summary, China’s February […]

U.S.-China: Trump’s new approach risks a dangerous confrontation

The relationship between the US and China is of vital importance for the world both from an economic and a geopolitical perspective. Competition between the two powers could be set to come to a head under Donald Trump’s presidency. First, the trade relationship with China is a central issue in the Trump administration’s apparent intention […]

Japan: an export-led recovery is underway

The first preliminary reading of Japan’s real GDP growth for Q4 2016 came in at 1% q-o-q annualised, roughly in line with the consensus forecast of 1.1% but below the 1.3% growth in Q3. The growth in Q4 almost all came from external demand (+1.0%), while the contribution from domestic demand was virtually 0%. Japanese […]

China: near-term prospects good, mid term less clear

Chinese GDP grew by 6.8% in Q4 2016 and by 6.7% in 2016 as a whole, in line with our forecast. The pick-up in fixed-asset investment in the second half was probably the key contributor to this solid performance. The likelihood of a sharp deceleration in fixed-asset investment in Q1 2017 has declined greatly. Growth […]

China maintains economic momentum

The latest data releases out of Beijing indicate steady momentum in the Chinese economy. Exports are showing signs of recovery and investment in manufacturing is helping to offset a recent drop in property investment. All in all, the latest data releases are consistent with our full-year GDP forecast of 6.7% in 2016. Looking ahead, we […]

Signs of life in Japanese inflation

The labour survey for October shows that wage growth remains sluggish in Japan, despite increasing signs of tightness in the labour market. Nonetheless, inflation in Japan may start to move higher on account of external factors such as the exchange rate and commodity prices. Japanese workers’ cash earnings rose by just 0.1% year-over-year in October. […]

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