Author Archive

Oil market tilted towards oversupply

  After the 30 November agreement between OPEC and Russia to extend oil production cuts until the end of 2018, it is worth looking again at the balance between oil supply and demand. The most recent data indicate that without continued willingness from OPEC to limit supply, the market will be naturally tilted towards oversupply […]

Upward potential for oil prices is limited

Recent developments have brought noticeable changes to the outlook for the supply-demand balance. First of all, the steady decline in the value of the US dollar since the end of 2016 has been stopped. In fact, the dollar appreciated by 4% between end-September and 7 November. Second, world economic activity has gained steam. In its […]

Fed funds rate back to 3%?

Janet Yellen refers regularly to the concept of ‘neutral’ interest rate as a reference point for monetary policy. The neutral rate is very helpful in determining whether the Fed’s monetary stance is relaxed or restrictive and can also provide insight into the Fed’s next possible moves. The financial crisis has had a considerable impact on […]

Oil prices: limited upside potential

The market was highly optimistic about the oil price at the beginning of this year, with oil analysts expecting that prices would have recovered to USD60-65 by now. These hopes have clearly been dashed, as WTI prices have fluctuated in a range of USD45-55 since January 1. We have been much less optimistic than the […]

The potential impact of a Trump fiscal stimulus

Our core scenario for the US is for real GDP growth of 2% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018. This assumes that fiscal policy will be only modestly stimulative. However, with the election of Donald Trump as US president, the possibility of a radical change in public policy has increased markedly—possibilities, which enter into our […]

Global sentiment indicator supports growth scenario

Global sentiment improved slightly in November, to 52.1 from 52.0 in October, according to Markit’s global Purchasing Manager Index (PMI). This is the third monthly improvement in a row. One has to look back to August 2014 to find a higher level. Advanced economies are among the more upbeat. Business sentiment in November was highest […]

Oil prices: looking for equilibrium

There were sharp movements in the price over the summer, and further volatility is likely in the coming months. WTI oil prices dropped around 25% between June and early August. Prices subsequently rallied, rising by around 20% to close to USD50/b, before dipping again at the close of August. High inventories played a key role […]

Modelling suggests Brexit will cost euro area 0.5% of growth over three years

PWM has on-boarded the models used in the major central banks to tell us the cost of Brexit for the euro area economy. Using the same models used in major central banks gives our asset allocation policy important advantages. We have the same diagnosis of the situation as the monetary authorities and we are able to enter […]

How much would Brexit cost the world economy?

Read full report here The relatively small size of the UK economy (2.4% of world GDP) means the global impact of Brexit would be almost negligible in strictly economic terms, according to global-VAR models of the kind used by central banks to assess the effect of specific events on the global economy. Unsurprisingly, the most […]

Oil prices should rise gradually

On April 12, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its World Economic Outlook survey, containing its economic forecasts for 2016 and 2017. The IMF revised downward its global growth forecast for 2016 by 0.2%. In a recent post we presented our macro-econometric model, which showed a stable long-term relationship between oil price, global economic growth […]

  1. 1
  2. 2
  3. 3
  4. 4
  5. 5
  6. 6
  7. 7
  8. 8
  9. 9
  10. 10

Our site and the information it contains is not intended to US citizens, US residents, Canadian citizens or Canadian residents.

I am not a US citizen, US resident, Canadian citizen and/or Canadian resident
I am a US citizen, US resident, Canadian citizen and/or Canadian resident