At the beginning of 2017, in our outlook for sovereign bonds, we forecasted that the 10-year US Treasury yield would rise to 2.8-3% by year’s end. However, yields have been stuck in a range of 2.2-2.6%, so a review looks warranted. Indeed, the risk has increased of an alternative to the core scenario, but we […]
Last year credit posted stellar total returns, and the beginning of 2017 has also started well. Investors need to watch three main macroeconomic risk factors in 2017: Inflation, which will normalize; Monetary policy, which will continue to diverge; and Fiscal policy, which will remain accommodative in both the US and euro area. However, we expect […]
Our central scenario for developed markets sovereign bond yields in 2017 is based on our in-house risk-factor analysis, which is leading us to conclude that there is a 65% probability that 2017 will be a year of reflation (see table). Underpinning the economic environment will be the following three macroeconomic factors: Inflation, which should accelerate […]
We have revised our year-end target for the 10-year US Treasury yield from 1.7% to 2% and for the 10-year German Bund yield from 0.08% to 0.3%. Since the end of September, markets’ inflation expectations have rebounded, with euro and USD 5Y5Y inflation swap rates and 10-year breakeven yields rising. This rise is due to […]
The financial markets’ reaction to the UK’s Brexit referendum, together with the change in our economic scenarios as a result of UK voters’ decision to leave the European Union, are leading us to change our forecast for euro area bonds, particularly our forecasts for the German 10-year Bund and for yield spreads over Bunds for […]
Read full report here As we arrive close to the end of the first half of 2016, it is time to revisit our 2016 scenario for US Treasuries. Since we formulated our scenario in October 2015, giving a target 10-year US Treasury yield of 2.7% for the end of 2016, many things have changed. First, […]
High-Yield (HY) corporate bonds have continued to suffer since the start of the year, posting a negative total return of 4.6% for the US index and 3.6% for the equivalent index in euro. It comes as no surprise that the worst-performing US sector was energy, down 18.3%, and the best performer was super retail, with […]
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