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France & Spain : Strong Q2 GDP growth performance

France and Spain today were the first big countries in the euro area to publish GDP growth figures for Q2 2017. French real GDP rose by 0.5% q-o-q in Q2 2017, the same pace as the two previous quarters. The details showed that domestic demand remained solid, while the sharp improvement in net exports offset […]

Euro area : Momentum slows at the start of Q3

The composite flash PMI fell to 55.8 in July from 56.4 in May, below consensus expectations (56.2). The headline dip was entirely driven by the manufacturing index, which fell to 56.8 in July from 57.4 in June. By contrast, the services index remained stable at 55.4. The PMI’s forward-looking components remained pretty strong, despite edging […]

Euro area: Bank credit standards eased slightly in Q2

  The July Bank Lending Survey (BLS), released by the ECB today, showed that bank credit standards for loans to enterprises eased slightly in Q2 2017, following a net easing in the previous quarter. This came despite expectations in the previous survey round that these standards would tighten slightly. Competitive pressure remained the main factor […]

EA: Bank credit flows rose again in May

Euro area credit flows to non-financial corporations increased again in May, by EUR10 bn in adjusted terms, following a gain of EUR11 bn in April. Broad money growth (M3) rose marginally from 4.9% to 5.0% y-o-y. Bank lending growth to the private sector was broadly unchanged at 2.6% y-o-y, in line with leading indicators. Overall, […]

Euro PMIs show business activity remains solid

PMI indices showed some signs of moderation in June. The composite PMI decreased from 56.8 in May to 55.7 in June, below consensus expectations (56.6). The PMI’s forward-looking components remained pretty strong in June, with some bright spots in new orders and employment. On average, composite PMI in Q2 was the highest in six years […]

Swiss National Bank in wait-and-see mode

At its June meeting, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its accommodative monetary policy unchanged. The interest rate on sight deposits was maintained at a record low of -0.75% and the SNB reiterated its willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if needed. Our baseline scenario remains unchanged. We expect the interest on sight […]

France & Spain: Q1 GDP growth

France and Spain today became the first big countries in the euro area to publish GDP growth figures for Q1. French real GDP expanded by 0.3% q-o-q in Q1 2017, down from +0.5% q-o-q in Q4, and lower than what was expected by the consensus. The details were more encouraging than the headline figure. In […]

Latest PMI numbers tilt growth forecast upwards

Euro area PMI surveys surprised to the upside in April. The composite flash PMI surged to 56.7 in April from 56.4 in March, above consensus expectations (56.4). Overall, April’s composite PMI is consistent with euro area GDP growth of 0.7% quarter over quarter (q-o-q) in Q2, up from 0.6% in Q1 and higher than our […]

No hint of Swiss rate rise

At its latest policy meeting on 16 March, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left the interest rate on sight deposits at a record low of -0.75% and the central bank reiterated its willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if needed, “taking the overall currency situation into consideration”, as it had mentioned in its […]

Switzerland: modest recovery remains on track

The Swiss statistical agency (SECO)’s quarterly estimates show a provisional GDP growth rate of 1.3% in 2016 compared with 0.8% in 2015. Two aspects of today’s report are worth mentioning. First, on the expenditure side, both domestic demand components and foreign trade helped to boost Swiss growth in 2016. It was a much better year […]

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