Macroview

Is there really a January effect in equity markets?

January 2012 surprised most investors with a stark increase of 4.4% on the S&P 500 and 4.0% on the DJ Stoxx 600, further extending the rally that started in December. Once again the January rule of thumb proved to be true. Really ? The January effect is widely known among investors as a calendar anomaly […]

The Chinese economy expands in January on strengthening domestic demand

New economic figures indicate that China’s economy seems to be holding up well and stabilizing: domestic demand is cushioning weakness in global demand. The January manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in China climbed to 50.5 from 50.3 in December, well above market expectations of 49.6. This increasingly positive economic picture underlines the improvement of monetary […]

European Summit: more fiscal discipline but no instruments to stimulate growth

The leaders of the members states of the European Union discussed employment and economic policies at yesterday’s informal meeting. First, the so-called fiscal compact aimed at strengthening fiscal discipline and introducing more automatic sanctions and stricter surveillance within the euro area was finalised. It has been renamed the “Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance”. Under […]

Perspectives presentation London

Last week took place our Perspectives event in London presenting Pictet’s views for 2012. Please find below the slides used for the presentation. Perspectives London – January 2012

United States: a new step in monetary easing

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) went beyond expectations of the markets yesterday by pushing back the timing of the expected first hike from mid-2013 to late 2014, by stating that: “economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014”. With a further reduction in […]

Equities : 2012 earnings outlook

Corporate earnings are expected to grow by 9% in the United States and by 8% in Europe in 2012. As leading economic indicators are stabilising in Europe and improving in the United States, pressure on estimated 2012 earnings should ease. Thus, excluding a new financial shock, most adjustments on estimated earnings are likely to have […]

United States: housing data improves more meaningfully

Existing home sales rose strongly in December 2011. They increased by 5.0% m-o-m to 4.61 million annualised, which was slightly below consensus expectations (4.65 million). This provided confirmation of the revival in sales seen since August last year. Existing home sales bounced back by a robust 12.5% q-o-q annualised in Q4, following a fall of […]

United States: core inflation is likely to be close to its peak

Core CPI rose by 0.145% m-o-m, in line with consensus estimates. Over the past three months, the core CPI has increased by 1.8% annualised, a lower reading than over the preceding three months of 2.1% (see chart hereunder). US Core CPI: % Change Year-on-year core inflation stabilised at 2.2% in December (before rounding, it actually […]

Euro area crisis: totting up the notches

Has something changed in the way the euro area crisis is perceived? Despite the downgrade of nine euro area countries (see illustration hereunder), which resulted in the EFSF losing its AAA rating, and the threat of a spiral of downgrade and defaults, markets have remained positive. The upbeat mood seen since the beginning of the […]

The Swiss franc: what to expect after Mr Hildebrand

In the early days of 2012, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) came under the spotlight again. This time, however, it was not because of its currency interventions but because of its (now) former head, Philipp Hildebrand. Indeed, Mr Hildebrand had to resign after his wife bought US dollars a couple of days before the SNB, […]

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