Macroview

United States: house prices

The S&P Case-Shiller index fell by 0.1% m-o-m in June, but was up marginally (+0.1%) q-o-q in Q2, following a significant fall in Q1 (-1.3%). This slight improvement shouldn’t be interpreted too positively. The renewed sharp weakness in house prices earlier this year was probably partly linked to particularly inclement weather in January and February […]

United States: NIPA corporate profits

According to the corporate profits statistics published by the National Accounts (NIPA), US corporate profits rose further in Q2, reaching 12.9% as a percentage of GDP, their highest proportion since 1950. Corporate profits rose by $57.3bn q-o-q in Q2 11 (+12.8% annualised). Due to the disappearance of a favourable base effect, corporate profits were up […]

Europe caught in its own net

The eurozone debt crisis is intensifying. It has been expanding to an ever higher number of countries: recently France has witnessed a first salvo of attacks from the markets. It is worsening in distressed countries. Wanting to solve the indebtedness problem through virtuous management of public finances, without massive intervention by the ECB, implies reducing […]

Another episode of the doctor breaking the thermometer

There are a few reasons up in the air as to why risk assets sold of so hard yesterday, such as the ECB having had to lend USD to a EU bank but I think this is more a symptom of the crisis than a cause. My colleagues at Pictet Asset Management (PAM) posted in […]

Gold continues to fulfil its insurance role

Gold is experiencing unprecedented success, but the high price casts doubt over further price gains. The sovereign crisis continues to rock financial markets and threaten the global economy. Many assets are looking cheap on various valuation measures. Higher yielding assets and attractive buying opportunities might divert investment away from gold. Though gold is very expensive […]

Europe: sharp slowdown confirmed

In accordance with bleak prospects, we are revising down our already cautious GDP forecast. Instead of 0.2% q-o-q growth in Q3 and Q4, we predict growth close to zero in the second half of the year. As a result, the 2011 growth forecast is revised down from 1.7% to 1.5%. As a consequence of a […]

Europe: sharp slowdown confirmed

In accordance with bleak prospects, we are revising down our already cautious GDP forecast. Instead of 0.2% q-o-q growth in Q3 and Q4, we predict growth close to zero in the second half of the year. As a result, the 2011 growth forecast is revised down from 1.7% to 1.5%. As a consequence of a […]

USA: retail sales UP and net exports DOWN

Retail Sales: Solid increase in July and upward revisions for May and June Retail sales rose by a healthy 0.5% in July, and data for May and June were revised up Core retail sales rose by 0.3% m-o-m and June’s figure was revised sharply up, from +0.1% to +0.4% This report confirms the idea that […]

USA: retail sales UP and net exports DOWN

Retail Sales: Solid increase in July and upward revisions for May and June Retail sales rose by a healthy 0.5% in July, and data for May and June were revised up Core retail sales rose by 0.3% m-o-m and June’s figure was revised sharply up, from +0.1% to +0.4% This report confirms the idea that […]

USA: Firmer commitment on the zero policy rate

The Fed took a new exceptional step yesterday when it put a specific time frame on its zero interest rate policy (exceptionally low rates at least until mid-2013) However, this step is a small one. It won’t help the economy much and it probably won’t be a lasting support for risk appetite Additional measures are […]

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