Macroview

USA: industrial production

Industrial production rose by a strong 0.8% m-o-m in March, above consensus estimates (+0.6%). Moreover, the February reading was revised from -0.1% to +0.1%. However, January’s figure was revised from +0.3% to +0.1%. The positive surprise in the headline figure was partly due to a strong rebound in production of utilities: +1.7% m-o-m, following a […]

USA: consumer price index

The overall CPI rose by 0.5% m-o-m in March, in line with consensus expectations. Food prices were up a strong 0.8% whilst energy prices jumped further up by 3.5% m-o-m (gasoline surged 5.6%). Core CPI was up by 0.1% m-o-m (0.135% to be precise), slightly below consensus estimates (+0.2%). Over the past three months however, […]

USA: modest export growth in January-Feburary

The US trade deficit narrowed marginally in February to $45.8bn. The small drop was mostly linked to the oil balance Between Q4 and January-February, real exports grew more modestly than expected, whilst real imports bounced back very strongly As a result, we are revising our forecast for Q1 GDP growth from 3¼% to 2¾%  The […]

The ECB calls time on quantitative easing

As expected the ECB has raised the refinancing rate by 25bp to 1.25% The ‘corridor’ is left unchanged as the deposit and the marginal lending facilities have also been raised by 25bp Monetary policy tightening will probably follow We expect the refinancing rate to reach 2% at the end of the year As expected, the […]

USA: employment report

Payrolls rose by a healthy 216,000 in March, above consensus estimates. Encouragingly as well, the unemployment rate fell further from 8.9% in February to 8.8% in March Other data were also upbeat, in particular due to an upward revision of February’s average workweek. As a result, aggregate weekly payrolls (a proxy for labour income) grew […]

China: between paper tiger and soaring dragon

Today we summarize the long-term trends of China’s economy and the transformations at  work. These highlights are more structural than cyclical, and portray the pattern of Chinese growth, its sustainability and the challenges for the coming years. The size of the Chinese economy put into perspective China may be the world’s second largest economy, but […]

USA: continuing trend of robust recovery in profits

NIPA corporate profits rose by 9.7% q-o-q annualised in Q4 10, slightly higher than in Q3 (+6.6%) Profits from financial corporations bounced back further sharply q-o-q but non-financial profits actually declined modestly The third estimate of Q3 GDP data was accompanied by a set of economy wide statistics on corporate profits in a National Accounts […]

USA: manufacturing output growth picking up sharply

Total industrial production dropped by 0.1% m-o-m in February, due to a fall in the most volatile component (utilities) However, manufacturing production was up 0.4% and January’s number was revised sharply up As a result, growth in manufacturing output bounced back sharply over the past few months, consistent with what was suggested by recent ISM […]

USA: consumer price index

Core inflation moved further back up Core CPI rose by 0.2% m-o-m in January, above consensus expectations of +0.1% for the second month in a row Y-o-y core inflation accelerated further from 1.0% in January to 1.1% in February We believe that core inflation will pick up further modestly during the course of 2011. Our […]

Swiss National Bank surprinsingly silent regarding the strength of the Swiss franc

As expected, the SNB kept its target rate on hold and was more upbeat on the prospects for growth We still do not expect any rate hike before Q4 2011 at the earliest The SNB was surprisingly silent about problems posed by the surging Swiss franc Although anything looks possible in the short-run, we continue […]

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