Are French reforms for real?

The first major piece of President Emmanuel Macron’s agenda, the business-friendly labour market reform, was signed into law last month. Some Macron measures may have adverse effects in the short term and some others are not fully financed and difficult to quantify, but overall they should boost purchasing power, investment and productivity. The government has […]

China is gobbling up US crude oil exports

The ‘revolution’ in tight oil production means that US oil production is about to break the annual record of 9.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) reached in 1970. Under rising pressure from oil producers, the Obama administration significantly loosened rules on crude oil exports, which have boomed. But where is all this oil going? China […]

New Fed Chair—Change or Continuity?

The Trump White House has reportedly narrowed the list of candidates for the role of Fed Chair to five people, and a decision could be announced in the coming days. The initial market reaction could be guided by the perceived hawkishness of any nominee compared with Janet Yellen. John Taylor and Kevin Warsh are perhaps […]

House View, October 2017

Asset allocation Headline volatility on equity markets remains low, and given robust economic and earnings growth we are still constructive on equities, particularly the euro area and Japan. We are neutral on the US, selective on Swiss stocks, and underweight the UK. However, there are signs of pressure, notably in forex markets, and headline volatility […]

Underlying momentum in US employment remains intact

Nonfarm payrolls fell 33,000 in September, with data affected by hurricanes in the southern US. These aside, labour market signals – especially when looking at the household survey – remain solid. After a drop of 74,000 in August, employment rose 906,000 in the household survey, leading to a sharp fall in unemployment to 4.2%, the […]

Switzerland not far from being deemed a ‘currency manipulator’ by the US

In the next few days, the U.S Department of Treasury will publish its semi-annual report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies. Switzerland is one of six countries on the department’s monitoring list, as it meets two of the three conditions established by the US Treasury to be deemed a ‘currency manipulator’. The country has […]

Core sovereign yields are heading North

In our start-of-the-year scenario for 2017, we thought that inflation, monetary and fiscal policy would push yields on core sovereign bonds higher, except on Japanese ones. In the event, political gridlock in Washington forced us to abandon our expectations for a significant fiscal stimulus in the US that would boost economic growth, while weakness in […]

Messing about in boats

A key question for investors is how to gauge the point we are at in the US business cycle. Some are worried that we have already surpassed the length of the previous expansion. According to data from the National Bureau of Economic Research, we are 99 months into an upward cycle that started in July […]

PBOC aims to stave off potential liquidity shock

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced on 30 September that it would lower the required reserve ratio (RRR) for selected banks by 50-150 basis points (bps) from the beginning of next January. Specifically, banks eligible for a 50 bps cut to their RRR will include those that have at least 1.5% of their existing […]

The declining link between the credit impulse and domestic demand

The ECB’s M3 and credit report for August published this week was pretty strong overall and confirmed the ongoing improvement in lending dynamics in the euro area. Bank credit flows to the private sector (adjusted for seasonal effects and sales and securitisations) amounted to €17bn in August, lower than the July figure of €39bn. In […]

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