Macroview

Markets react well to Fed hike

In line with what almost every forecaster was expecting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided at its latest policy meeting to raise the Fed funds rate target range by 25bp to 0.75%-1.0%. Fed Chair Janet Yellen explained that the decision to raise rates was appropriate “in light of the economy’s solid progress toward our […]

China: growth looking good for first half before possible deceleration in second

The first batch of hard data on domestic activity for 2017 points to strong momentum in fixed-asset investment (FAI) and industrial production, while consumption has been on the weak side. In the first two months of 2017, FAI grew by 8.9% y-o-y, compared with 6.5% for December 2016 and 8.1% for 2016 as a whole. As […]

Monthly Investment Strategy Highlights, March 2017

Asset allocation We remain comfortable with our overweight position in developed-market (DM) equities and believe there are good reasons to be positive on Japanese equities. With volatility low and risks looming in the short term, this is a good time to add protection to portfolios. We have bought derivative protection on EUR high-yield bonds and […]

Healthy job reports open the way to rate increases

February’s US non-farm payroll figure was strong (although partly due to temporary factors and unusually mild weather), with non-farm payrolls rising 235,000, above expectations. Other data in the February employment report were also upbeat. The US unemployment rate fell back from 4.8% to 4.7% in February, slightly below the Fed median estimate for full employment […]

ECB fine tunes communication as recovery broadens

The ECB delivered a fairly balanced, albeit more optimistic message at today’s press conference, echoing upward revisions to the staff projections for 2017-18 euro area GDP growth and inflation. Crucially, however, the 2019 projection for inflation was left unchanged at 1.7%. Looking ahead, the ECB’s four inflation criteria are unlikely to be fully met before […]

Decline in expected returns for equities and bonds

  We believe that the returns that can be expected from developed-market equities over the next 10 years will be over a third lower than average of the past 46 years. Growth potential and inflation trends suggest that expected annual returns for US equities could decline to just over 5% over the next 10 years, […]

Fixed Income: looking for a place to hide

Last year credit posted stellar total returns, and the beginning of 2017 has also started well. Investors need to watch three main macroeconomic risk factors in 2017: Inflation, which will normalize; Monetary policy, which will continue to diverge; and Fiscal policy, which will remain accommodative in both the US and euro area. However, we expect […]

Early rate hike means change in our U.S. rates scenario

As we don’t expect any big negative surprise in the February employment report (to be released on Friday), the probability of a hike next week has risen sharply. We are therefore changing our forecasts for Fed rates this year. Our main scenario is now that the Fed will first hike in March, instead of June. […]

Fundamentals look supportive for consumer sector

Macroeconomic trends in the US and Europe, in particular Trump’s policy plans, could be highly significant for the Consumer sector this year. The outlook for consumer spending is favourable and, in the US, plans for cuts in personal income tax and corporate tax could strongly benefit Consumer. Implications of possible protectionist moves are more mixed. […]

Upbeat Chinese PMI point to strong momentum

China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in February came in at 51.6, compared with 51.3 in January, while the Caixin (Markit) manufacturing PMI rose by 0.7 from the previous month to 51.7. The official non-manufacturing PMI in February remained an elevated 54.2, only slightly below the reading of 54.6 in January. In summary, China’s February […]

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