Macroview

Euro area growth on track to reach at least 1.5% in 2017

According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate released today, euro area real GDP expanded by 0.5% q-o-q in Q1 2017 (+0.455% q-o-q; 1.8% q-o-q annualised; 1.7% y-o-y), slightly above consensus expectations (0.4%). This flash estimate confirms that most business confidence surveys overestimated growth at the beginning of the year, with the ‘true pace’ of economic expansion […]

US economic prospects look good

US GDP growth decelerated from 2.8% in H2 2016 to 0.7% quarter on quarter (q-o-q) annualised in Q1, slightly below consensus expectations (1.0%). However, this weak reading is mainly due to statistical anomalies (growth tends to be lower in Q1) and transitory factors that weighed on consumer spending and stockbuilding. However, fixed investment growth picked […]

The Pictet Group Annual Review 31 December 2016

We are pleased to introduce the Annual Review of the  Pictet Group for 2016 — my first as Senior Partner. After I assumed the role on 1 July last year, I was asked if Pictet’s strategic direction would change. The Senior Partner is, by tradition, chair and primus inter pares of  the board of partners, […]

Distorted rebound in core euro area inflation

The big story from today’s set of economic data releases was the sharp rebound of euro area core HICP inflation, from 0.7% to 1.2% in April. While the ECB should welcome the news, our analysis points to large statistical distortions which will likely be reversed in the months ahead. We expect euro area core HICP […]

France & Spain: Q1 GDP growth

France and Spain today became the first big countries in the euro area to publish GDP growth figures for Q1. French real GDP expanded by 0.3% q-o-q in Q1 2017, down from +0.5% q-o-q in Q4, and lower than what was expected by the consensus. The details were more encouraging than the headline figure. In […]

ECB: the courage not to act

The European Central Bank left policy and forward guidance unchanged at today’s meeting notwithstanding the “increasingly solid” recovery and “diminished” downside risks to the outlook. Our impression is that there is a strong consensus to “finish the job” by keeping the monetary stance very accommodative until the ECB sees signs of life in core consumer […]

China GDP beats expectations, but no change in core scenario

Chinese GDP grew 6.9% year-over-year (y-o-y) in real terms in Q1 2017, up from 6.8% in Q4 2016 and 6.7% for the full year of 2016. The strong growth figure beats both the consensus forecast (6.8%) and our own estimate (6.7%).  In nominal terms, the rise in GDP was even more significant, growing 11.8% over […]

Bank lending gives no ground for ECB to change stance

Credit standards on loans to euro area enterprises eased in Q1, according to the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey (BLS), released today. Although banks expect a small net tightening of credit standards across all loan categories in Q2, credit conditions remain broadly favourable in the euro area. Demand for credit continued to rise in Q1, albeit […]

Macron victory still raises questions for markets

The first round of the French presidential election has come as a relief for markets as a pro-European, reformist candidate came first and now looks very likely to win the second round. For once, opinion polls were fairly accurate in capturing voting intentions and last-minute momentum. But the result of the first round is not […]

Latest PMI numbers tilt growth forecast upwards

Euro area PMI surveys surprised to the upside in April. The composite flash PMI surged to 56.7 in April from 56.4 in March, above consensus expectations (56.4). Overall, April’s composite PMI is consistent with euro area GDP growth of 0.7% quarter over quarter (q-o-q) in Q2, up from 0.6% in Q1 and higher than our […]

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