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Three “GDs” : impact on financial markets’ past, present, and future (2/2)

In this two-part article [part one], Christophe Donay, head of Asset Allocation and Macro Research,  discusses how the global economy is now dominated by the three GDs: the European Great Divergence, the US Great Deleveraging and the Emerging Markets Great Dynamics. These three forces rationalise the economic performance of the US, European and Emerging market […]

Three “GDs” : How they shape the world (1/2)

In this two-part article, Christophe Donay, head of Asset Allocation and Macro Research,  discusses how the global economy is now dominated by the three GDs: the European Great Divergence, the US Great Deleveraging and the Emerging Markets Great Dynamics. These three forces rationalise the economic performance of the US, European and Emerging market economies, as well […]

Three "GDs" : How they shape the world (1/2)

In this two-part article, Christophe Donay, head of Asset Allocation and Macro Research,  discusses how the global economy is now dominated by the three GDs: the European Great Divergence, the US Great Deleveraging and the Emerging Markets Great Dynamics. These three forces rationalise the economic performance of the US, European and Emerging market economies, as well […]

Will the ESM solve the crisis?

ECB’s Nowotny’s comments about giving the ESM a banking licence have boosted the market. However, such a solution appears impracticable within the current legal framework as it will violate Art. 123, one of the cornerstones of the construction of the EMU. One way of circumventing the ban imposed by Art. 123 would be to split […]

Euro area set for new recession

Worse-than-expected outcome The Ifo business climate index has fallen from 105.3 in June to 103.3 in July, well below the expected level (104.5). This is the third decline in a row. After improving last month, the current assessment index has fallen by 2.3 points to 111.6. Expectations have also been more pessimistic in July, with a decrease of 1.7 […]

A sneak peak into the world of hedge funds

Our expert in the selection of the world’s leading hedge fund managers, Jean-Pierre Selvatico, offers a review of the performance of hedge funds in the second quarter of 2012. The current economic climate, and more specifically the various potential outcomes for the eurozone and financial markets more generally, renders it difficult for one to be […]

Economic slowdown being confirmed

The July 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for reading and downloading. Here are this month’s key figures. Uncertainties about Greece’s continued presence in the eurozone and a Spanish banking sector under duress boosted interest in assets regarded as safe havens, such as the US dollar, US Treasury bonds and German Bunds. Data in […]

Why policymakers must be brave and innovate with economic policy

The July 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for reading and downloading. Here is July’s topic of the month on why policymakers must be brave and innovate with economic policy. Even though the policy mix is extraordinarily stimulating, developed-world economies just cannot embark on a virtuous circle of recovery. Worse still, governments, whose finances […]

EU summit calms the markets

The July 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for reading and downloading. Today, we look at asset classes and currencies: measures announced at the end of the EU summit on 28/29 June managed to ease tensions that had been afflicting most main asset classes. This reassurance may, however, be short-lived as the real underlying […]

Economies slowing down further

The July 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for reading and downloading. Here are this month’s headline news from around the world. The global economic slowdown has helped to push oil prices down. This welcome decline could serve to boost consumer spending again over the next few months. Click on the image below for […]

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