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Europe: sharp slowdown confirmed

In accordance with bleak prospects, we are revising down our already cautious GDP forecast. Instead of 0.2% q-o-q growth in Q3 and Q4, we predict growth close to zero in the second half of the year. As a result, the 2011 growth forecast is revised down from 1.7% to 1.5%. As a consequence of a […]

Europe: sharp slowdown confirmed

In accordance with bleak prospects, we are revising down our already cautious GDP forecast. Instead of 0.2% q-o-q growth in Q3 and Q4, we predict growth close to zero in the second half of the year. As a result, the 2011 growth forecast is revised down from 1.7% to 1.5%. As a consequence of a […]

USA: retail sales UP and net exports DOWN

Retail Sales: Solid increase in July and upward revisions for May and June Retail sales rose by a healthy 0.5% in July, and data for May and June were revised up Core retail sales rose by 0.3% m-o-m and June’s figure was revised sharply up, from +0.1% to +0.4% This report confirms the idea that […]

USA: retail sales UP and net exports DOWN

Retail Sales: Solid increase in July and upward revisions for May and June Retail sales rose by a healthy 0.5% in July, and data for May and June were revised up Core retail sales rose by 0.3% m-o-m and June’s figure was revised sharply up, from +0.1% to +0.4% This report confirms the idea that […]

USA: Firmer commitment on the zero policy rate

The Fed took a new exceptional step yesterday when it put a specific time frame on its zero interest rate policy (exceptionally low rates at least until mid-2013) However, this step is a small one. It won’t help the economy much and it probably won’t be a lasting support for risk appetite Additional measures are […]

Insight: balance sheet driven asset allocation

Events are unfolding at a fastening pace in the ongoing sovereign debt crisis and I guess everyone is struggling in terms of understanding the implications with so many moving parts. On Friday night, S&P took markets by surprise with the downgrade of the long termUSsovereign credit rating to AA+, including a negative outlook to add […]

Are bonds still relevant in portfolios?

In a context of low interest rates, does it still make sense to hold bonds in portfolios? In the following video, Yves Bonzon, our Chief Investment Officer, addresses this issue by looking at employment, jobless claims and the returns of bonds vs. equities over the last 30 years.

Extraordinary SNB monetary policy decision

“The current strength of the Swiss franc is threatening the development of the economy and increasing the downside risks to price stability (read deflation risk) in Switzerland. The Swiss national bank will not tolerate a continual tightening of monetary conditions and is therefore taking measures against the strong Swiss franc”. These are the first lines […]

United States: GDP growth

Real GDP grew by only 1.3% q-o-q annualised in Q2 2011, below the consensus estimate of 1.8%. Moreover, growth in Q1 was revised down from 1.9% to a very weak 0.4% and in Q4 2010 from 3.1% to 2.3%. This means that average growth in H1 was below 1%!!! (+0.8%). The revisions were part of […]

United States: Debt ceiling drama

The debt ceiling drama is heating up. However, we continue to believe the most likely scenario is that a last minute deal will be struck, bringing some welcome relief to the financial markets. If no agreement is reached ahead of the 2 August deadline (a rather unlikely scenario albeit a possible one), it would obviously […]

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