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Euro area: still likely to contract in 2012

Eurozone statistics are likely to continue to deteriorate probably until mid-Q1 due to the traditional lag between surveys and activity, even if the recent stabilisation in surveys is confirmed in the following months. As a result, we maintain our forecast of a contraction of 0.1% on average for 2012 for the whole euro area. Nevertheless, […]

Insight: A greater role for social entrepreneurs

As the holiday season is starting, we are happy to present the views from Filipe Santos on Social Entrepreneurship, a trend gaining importance in times of fiscal austerity. Filipe Santos is Associate Professor of Entrepreneurship at INSEAD. He is the director for the Maag International Centre for Entrepreneurship and the academic director of the INSEAD Social […]

US inflation to ease in 2012

We continue to believe year-on-year core inflation will peak in December or January at a slightly higher rate than in November, stabilise in Q1 2012 and then decline progressively, reaching some 1.5% by end-2012. Today’s US inflation statistics show that year-on-year core inflation inched up further to 2.2% in November. After falling to 0.6% in […]

The Swiss National Bank keeps its target floor of CHF 1.20 per euro

As widely expected, the SNB kept its target three-month LIBOR rate on hold at 0.0% at its quarterly monetary policy meeting today. Regarding its exchange rate policy, the central bank didn’t raise the floor set at CHF 1.20 per euro. Expectations that this floor would be raised to 1.25 or 1.30 at today’s SNB quarterly meeting were […]

Non-normal is the new normal

The world has changed dramatically since 2008. The initial financial crisis, rooted in housing-market bubbles, especially in the US, and all the toxic assets acquired lock, stock and barrel primarily by the world’s leading investment banks, degenerated into a debilitating crisis of confidence worldwide with its epicentre in Europe: distrust initially of the banks, then […]

European Union Summit: The jigsaw pieces are slowly coming together

After an 11-hour marathon of negotiations in Brussels, the euro area’s heads of state sealed an agreement in response to the crisis at 5 o’clock in the morning on Friday. While a euro break-up is still not completely unthinkable, an exit to the crisis now appears to be feasible. Decisions were taken on two fronts. […]

European monetary policy: Mr Draghi puts on his German suit

The European Central Bank, under the helm of its new President Mario Draghi, lowered interest rates by 25bp yesterday. By acting for the second month in a row, the Governing Council confirmed that the deterioration of the economic conditions are sufficiently serious to justify bringing back the refinancing rate to 1%. The refi rate has […]

The Great Divergence: public debt and global growth

The economic environment from developed countries changed radically in 2008, shifting from the Great Moderation with stable public debt and growing economies to the Great Divergence where public debt and economic growth pull in different directions. Christophe Donay explains the reasons behind this shift and the impact for investors on their asset allocation.

United States: The ISM manufacturing index bounced back significantly in November

The ISM index bounced back to 52.7 in November, up from 50.8 in October, and was above consensus estimates of 51.8. In addition, the statistic came in with an encouraging sign for the near future, with the sub-index for new orders increasing sharply to 56.7 in November (see chart), compared to 52.4 in October and […]

Services with a smile

The founders of four businesses discuss the factors behind their success in creating innovative services, in a discussion moderated by Tyler Brûlé, Editor-in-Chief of Monocle.

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