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China: May Manufacturing PMI

The May manufacturing PMI in China declined to 52.0 from 52.9 in April and 53.4 in March, above market expectations (51.6). This decline underlines once more that the tightening process that began in early 2010 and accelerated during the autumn is having more effect on the real economy. The new orders component of the manufacturing […]

Two years on: opportunities and risk in a post crisis world

This Pictet Report, based on our conference in The Hague, concentrates on investment opportunities in a post-crisis world. The sub-prime crisis blew up in mid-2008, but it was only when it exploded that—rather like nuclear power— some investors discovered exactly what they had bought. When Greece ran into trouble in February 2010, we no longer […]

Prudent hedging for times of crisis

There are essentially two approaches to allocating assets in portfolios. One depends on a thorough macroeconomic and financial analysis to identify preferences for certain asset classes over others. Any such analysis can take quite varied forms technically and fundamentally, but it ultimately comes down to making decisions on the basis of forecasts. The second approach […]

Switzerland: GDP growth

Swiss GDP grew by a meagre 0.3% q-o-q in Q1 2011 (+1.0% annualised), well below consensus expectations (+0.7%). Moreover, the Q4 growth rate – while still strong – was revised down from +0.9% to +0.8% (+3.0% annualised). As a result, y-o-y GDP growth edged down from 3.1% in Q4 10 to 2.4% in Q1 11. […]

Insight: the new era of sustainable performance

Our ‘Insight’ series of articles gathers thoughts from the leading academic and business minds. Today we present the views of Subramanian Rangan, Professor of Strategy and Management at INSEAD and vice-chair of the World Economic Forum’s global agenda council on emerging multinationals. Business performance can be analysed on two levels–the enterprise level and the leadership or […]

United States: personal consumption and incomes

We remain moderately optimistic on consumption growth for the whole current quarter, in spite of the fact that today’s data clearly show a weak entry point into the quarter. Our forecast betting on an annualised q-o-q increase in real consumption of 2½% in Q2 remains unchanged for the time being. Nominal personal consumption expenditure rose […]

United States: NIPA corporate profits

The second estimate of Q1 GDP data was accompanied by a set of economywide statistics on corporate profits from a National Accounts (NIPA) perspective.  Corporate profits rose by $21.9bn q-o-q in Q1 11 (+5.3% annualised), following +$38.2bn in Q2 (+9.7%). Due to the disappearance of a very favourable base effect (profits rose by a huge […]

Single currency under pressure benefits Swiss franc

Two regimes alternatively prevail in the currency market. In the first regime, that we call “fundamental”, currencies move in line with economic data and monetary policy developments and expectations. In the second regime, that we call “crisis”, market participants focus on risks. Regimes switch rapidly from one to another, and usually in the wake of […]

Entrepreneurs and entrepreneurship

Perspectives is also about entrepreneurs and entrepreneurship. This unique group of business leaders employs millions of people and generates a substantial proportion of the world’s wealth. Entrepreneurs create successful companies that continue to grow and get passed down through the generations, often then becoming family-owned businesses. Behind each entrepreneur are some remarkable and inspiring stories. […]

Insight: Green shoots in alternative investments

The past 12 months have seen the continued mixed fortunes of the alternative investment industry evident since 2007. Hedge fund assets under management have grown again, but are still below the peak of 2007. Private equity bottomed-out at the end of 2009 but has yet to resume consistent growth. But the case for continuing to […]

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