The economic environment from developed countries changed radically in 2008, shifting from the Great Moderation with stable public debt and growing economies to the Great Divergence where public debt and economic growth pull in different directions. Christophe Donay explains the reasons behind this shift and the impact for investors on their asset allocation.
The ISM index bounced back to 52.7 in November, up from 50.8 in October, and was above consensus estimates of 51.8. In addition, the statistic came in with an encouraging sign for the near future, with the sub-index for new orders increasing sharply to 56.7 in November (see chart), compared to 52.4 in October and […]
Managing performance successfully over the long term—in business and in wealth management—requires many different skills. That is why in so many walks of life, boards are created to bring together the range of talents needed to achieve optimal performance. This issue of Pictet Report looks at the role of boards and how they can contribute […]
In arriving at scenarios for our tactical asset allocation for 2012, our team of macroeconomic analysts have sought to evaluate how the main asset classes are likely to perform depending on differing levels of volatility. Volatility is generally expressed in terms of theVIX Index that measures expected volatility on the S&P 500, the index of […]
After falling to 0.6% in October 2010, its lowest level since the administration started calculating this data in 1958, year-on-year US core inflation bounced back to 1.6% by mid-year 2011 and to 2.0% in August and September, before inching up further to 2.1% year-on-year in October. We believe however that the trend is about to […]
Today’s nominal retail sales report for October suggests that consumption continued to grow solidly early in Q4. The gauge increased by 0.5% m-o-m in October, above consensus expectations (+0.3%). Between Q3 and October, retail sales increased by a very strong 8.7% annualised, following a 4.6% rise q-o-q in Q3. On the back of lower gasoline […]
On 6 September, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) set a maximum value for the franc at EUR/CHF 1.20. After about two months, we can say that this exceptional operation has been successful. The Swiss franc has remained above 1.20 without experiencing any evident speculative attack. Moreover, early SNB criticism has waned because this operation has […]
The Chinese tightening process to cool the real economy and tame inflation is showing an ever increasing effect. The October consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, was published in line with expectations at 5.5% y-o-y, down from 6.1% in September. Food inflation slowed to 11.6% y-o-y, down from 13.4%. Non-food inflation decreased to […]