After an 11-hour marathon of negotiations in Brussels, the euro area’s heads of state sealed an agreement in response to the crisis at 5 o’clock in the morning on Friday. While a euro break-up is still not completely unthinkable, an exit to the crisis now appears to be feasible. Decisions were taken on two fronts. […]
The European Central Bank, under the helm of its new President Mario Draghi, lowered interest rates by 25bp yesterday. By acting for the second month in a row, the Governing Council confirmed that the deterioration of the economic conditions are sufficiently serious to justify bringing back the refinancing rate to 1%. The refi rate has […]
The economic environment from developed countries changed radically in 2008, shifting from the Great Moderation with stable public debt and growing economies to the Great Divergence where public debt and economic growth pull in different directions. Christophe Donay explains the reasons behind this shift and the impact for investors on their asset allocation.
The ISM index bounced back to 52.7 in November, up from 50.8 in October, and was above consensus estimates of 51.8. In addition, the statistic came in with an encouraging sign for the near future, with the sub-index for new orders increasing sharply to 56.7 in November (see chart), compared to 52.4 in October and […]
Managing performance successfully over the long term—in business and in wealth management—requires many different skills. That is why in so many walks of life, boards are created to bring together the range of talents needed to achieve optimal performance. This issue of Pictet Report looks at the role of boards and how they can contribute […]
In arriving at scenarios for our tactical asset allocation for 2012, our team of macroeconomic analysts have sought to evaluate how the main asset classes are likely to perform depending on differing levels of volatility. Volatility is generally expressed in terms of theVIX Index that measures expected volatility on the S&P 500, the index of […]
After falling to 0.6% in October 2010, its lowest level since the administration started calculating this data in 1958, year-on-year US core inflation bounced back to 1.6% by mid-year 2011 and to 2.0% in August and September, before inching up further to 2.1% year-on-year in October. We believe however that the trend is about to […]
Today’s nominal retail sales report for October suggests that consumption continued to grow solidly early in Q4. The gauge increased by 0.5% m-o-m in October, above consensus expectations (+0.3%). Between Q3 and October, retail sales increased by a very strong 8.7% annualised, following a 4.6% rise q-o-q in Q3. On the back of lower gasoline […]