Latest articles

View archive

The US tax bill will boost 2018 earnings forecasts

Last night, the US Senate approved the tax bill. It has since returned to the House of Representatives for administrative reasons, but, in line with an earlier vote, a green light looks now highly likely. Shortly thereafter, President Trump should sign it formally into law. If the tax reform is adopted, the statutory tax rate […]

US tax bill looks set to pass

The Republican leadership seems to have corralled enough support to pass the tax bill approved in conference committee. The bill could be signed into law as soon as this week. The tax bill cuts the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, from January 2018. Global corporate taxation will move to a territorial regime, with […]

ECB closer to the 2% inflation target than meets the eye

During an uneventful ECB press conference on Thursday, attention centred on the new staff projections. The headline projections were in line with expectations, albeit slightly higher on GDP growth and lower on inflation. The key word was “confidence”- in a strong expansion leading to a “significant” reduction in economic slack, as well as in the […]

Euro area: The sky is the limit

Flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for the euro area ended the year on a strong note. The composite PMI increased to 58.0 in December, from 57.5 in November, above consensus expectations (57.2). The robust momentum was led by a booming manufacturing sector, while services sentiment also improved. The breakdown by sub-indices was pretty strong, with […]

Increasingly optimistic on Swiss outlook

At its December meeting, the SNB left its accommodative monetary policy unchanged. The interest rate on sight deposits was maintained at a record low of -0.75% and the SNB reiterated its willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if needed. The SNB’s monetary policy assessment reflected an improvement in the outlook since its September […]

Fed’s enthusiasm on tax cut plans remains limited

The 13 December Fed decision – and Chair Yellen’s last press conference – was much as expected. The Fed hiked rates 25bps, bringing the interest rate on excess reserves to 1.5%. Meanwhile, Fed officials maintained their rate-hiking forecasts for next year: three rate increases, according to the ‘dot plot’. Chair Janet Yellen was cautious about […]

House View, December 2017

Asset allocation Economic and earnings growth continue to offer good momentum and the possibility of upside surprises for 2018, so we remain overweight DM equities. However, uncertainties over other key aspects of the outlook mean that investors may be unwise to lower their defences. We are keeping tail risk mitigation in portfolios. EM equities should […]

Effervescence, not exuberance

The key debate right now among economists revolves around how further will the expansionary phase of the US business cycle go. We are already over 100 months into the current phase (it started in July 2009), making it the third-longest period of post-World War II expansion. The longest was 119 months, between April 1991 and […]

Oil market tilted towards oversupply

  After the 30 November agreement between OPEC and Russia to extend oil production cuts until the end of 2018, it is worth looking again at the balance between oil supply and demand. The most recent data indicate that without continued willingness from OPEC to limit supply, the market will be naturally tilted towards oversupply […]

The Swiss economy is gaining momentum

Owing to weak GDP momentum in late 2016 and the first half of the year, the Swiss economy is likely to see relatively weak growth in 2017. Part of the weakness in GDP figures was due to specific factors. However, leading indicators, notably consumer confidence, manufacturing PMI and the KoF economic indicator, are running at […]

  1. 1
  2. 2
  3. 3
  4. 4
  5. 5
  6. 6
  7. 7
  8. 8
  9. 9
  10. ...
  11. 140