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Modest changes in latest Fed statement

As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remained on hold at its policy meeting on November 2 and there were only slight modifications in the FOMC statement. The Fed modestly upgraded its assessment of inflation and provided further hints of a December rate rise, saying that the case for a hike “has continued […]

Japan may see modest improvements in growth and inflation

At its latest policy meeting on November 1, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) elected to keep its “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control” policy unchanged and did not announce any further easing measures. In addition, the BoJ revised the trajectory of its inflation projections downward to better reflect Japan’s economic reality. […]

PMI reports point to good second half for Chinese economy

China’s purchasing manager indices (PMIs) rose strongly in October. Both the official and the Caixin manufacturing PMIs came in at 51.2 , reaching their highest levels since August 2014. The official non-manufacturing PMIs also rose noticeable in October. The strong figures indicate that the improving growth momentum in China of the past few months has […]

Core US inflation should rise only modestly

  Core US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation remained stable at 1.7% year on year (y-o-y) in September, in line with consensus expectations. We continue to believe that core PCE inflation will pick up modestly over the coming months. Our forecast that it will reach 1.9% y-o-y by year-end and 2.1% in December 2017 remains […]

Headline prices rise in the euro area, but core inflation still subdued

Euro area flash HICP inflation rose from 0.4% year on year (y-o-y) in September to 0.5% in October, while core inflation remained stable at 0.8%. Both figures were in line with market expectations. However, the details behind the core inflation figure were slightly weaker than expected. Euro area inflation is likely to move sharply higher […]

Euro area GDP growth in line with expectations

Euro area real GDP expanded at a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) rate of 0.3% in Q2 (1.4% q-o-q annualised, 1.6% year on year), in line with expectations and our own forecast. This comes after GDP growth of 0.3% q-o-q in Q2 and 0.5% q-o-q in Q1. Looking ahead, risks to our scenario for the euro area economy […]

Strong U.S. GDP report conceals softness of some components

On the back of a temporary surge in exports, real US GDP grew by a strong 2.9% in Q3, above consensus expectations. Our yearly average forecasts that US GDP will grow by 1.5% in 2016 and 2.0% in 2017 remain unchanged. The robust rate of expansion in Q3 needs to put in proper context. First, […]

Taking stock of the latest European GDP numbers

This week saw the release of preliminary third-quarter GDP numbers in the UK, France and Spain. Following stronger-than-expected GDP growth (+0.5% q-on-q in the third quarter), we have revised our growth forecast for the UK higher, to 2.0% in 2016, (up from an earlier estimate of 1.8%). However, we still expect the fallout from the […]

Disappointing credit flow figures in the eurozone

Euro area bank credit flows to non-financial corporations (NFC) were pretty disappointing in September (coming in flat after a decline of EUR 1bn in August). On a country by country basis, NFC flows were positive for the four biggest economies, but not enough to bring the 3-month average back into positive territory in Italy and […]

Euro area business surveys point to strong start to Q4

Euro area business surveys just released show a solid start to the fourth quarter. More importantly still, these forward-looking indicators suggested that growth is likely to gain momentum in the months ahead, in particular in Germany. The good performance of the German manufacturing sector suggests that external demand might be less a drag than in […]

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