Posts Tagged ‘carousel’

Euro area: composite PMI softened in February

After four months of consecutive rises, the euro area flash manufacturing PMI slipped by 1 point to 53.0 in February, below consensus expectations (54.0). In contrast, the euro area services PMI inched up marginally from 51.6 in January to 51.7 in February, below consensus expectations (51.9). As a result, the composite PMI which is the […]

Emerging economies cranking up deflationary pressures worldwide

Just as Ben Bernanke passes the baton to the new Chair of the Federal Reserve, increasing tensions in emerging markets have reminded us that the main structural risk remains deflation, not inflation as his detractors have always claimed.

United States: bad weather has a negative impact on the manufacturing index

The ISM manufacturing survey published on Tuesday was surprisingly weak. The headline index fell sharply from 56.5 in December to 51.3 in January, well below consensus estimates (56.0), and its lowest reading since May 2013. The deterioration was quite broad-based, with the fall in the ‘new orders’ sub-component particularly striking, as it plunged from a […]

Impressive US GDP growth, coming in at 3.7% in H2 2013

In Q4 2013, US real GDP growth was quite strong for the second quarter in a row. Economic activity expanded by 3.2% q-o-q annualised, in line with consensus expectations. On a year-on-year basis, GDP growth accelerated from 2.0% in Q3 to 2.7% in Q4. Strong pick-up in private final demand growth Details of the report […]

US housing prospects for 2014 remain upbeat

Today’s data on existing US home sales revealed that sales rebounded marginally m-o-m in December. Nevertheless, the fall registered over the past few months was substantial. Sales fell by 7.8% q-o-q (not annualised) in Q4 2013 (see chart below). The sharp increase in mortgage rates witnessed last year and still relatively tight credit conditions are […]

Anomalies, bubbles and monetary policies: asset allocation at a crossroads

At the end of the opening day of Pictet Wealth Management Strategy Committee’s annual seminar at Villars-sur-Ollon in October, our digital screens were all displaying the names of the winners of the 2013 Nobel Prize for Economics. On the one hand, Robert Schiller, a proponent of the theory of investors’ irrationality, was rewarded for his […]

US manufacturing output growth picked up markedly in Q4 2013

Total industrial production in the US rose by 0.3% m-o-m in December, in line with consensus expectations. The sharp rise recorded in November was revised to a slightly less buoyant reading, but data for September and October were revised up. Manufacturing output growth quite strong in Q4 Following a sharp bounce in November, the production […]

Draghi speaks louder during ECB’s press conference

As expected, nothing concrete was announced yesterday. Nevertheless, Mario Draghi hinted at some interesting points, but it required reading between the lines. During the press conference the ECB president emphasised the central bank’s forward guidance. On several occasions he referred to the current low level of inflation and the risk of seeing this situation last longer: […]

The Fed: ‘Tapering’ with care

It was becoming increasingly clear that the Fed wanted to make a start soon on scaling back its purchases of assets under QE3 but, in parallel, it wished to convince all and sundry that tapering does not equate to monetary tightening. With these objectives in mind, yesterday’s ‘tapering’ announcement was clearly a success. Modest ‘tapering’ […]

Made in Switzerland

Switzerland is a small land-locked country with around 8 million inhabitants, four official languages and a history as a federal republic dating back less than two centuries. Yet when the World Economic Forum published its annual Global Competitiveness Index earlier this year, Switzerland was in first place for the fifth successive year. In this issue […]

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