Posts Tagged ‘carousel’

Contagion not spreading from emerging to developed markets

In this edition: • CIO Yves Bonzon’s editorial outlook: One train may hide another • Macroeconomics: The cost of the US monetary brake • Strategy: Clouds of risk bubbling up over emerging markets • Headline news: Monetary tightening in various parts of the globe • Asset classes: Financial markets hanging on the Fed’s every word […]

The digital media investor and entrepreneur

In the fast-changing world of digital media, there are the entrepreneurs who create start-ups, business angels who finance their first steps, venture capitalists who provide more substantial funding, and investment bankers who take the most successful through to maturity. But as innovation gathers pace and disruptive new technologies sweep away traditional industries, the barriers between these different activities are breaking down, and […]

US: ISM indices pointing to strong economic growth in Q3

The publication of the ISM manufacturing survey last Tuesday was once again a positive surprise. The composite index inched up further from 55.4 in July to 55.7 in August, well above consensus estimates (54.0). ISM manufacturing: new orders sub-component up sharply The monthly improvement was particularly positive for the ‘new orders’ sub- component, which jumped […]

US consumption softer than expected in July

Nominal personal spending increased by a meagre 0.1% m-o-m in July, below consensus expectations (+0.3%). In real terms, consumer spending was flat m-o-m. However, the 0.1% monthly rise published initially for June was revised up to +0.2%. Consumption seems to have entered Q3 on a weak note. Between Q2 and July, consumer spending grew by […]

Eurozone: depressed figures show the fragility of the recovery process

Monetary aggregates deteriorate further Monetary developments weakened further in July. M3 growth decelerated from 2.4% y-o-y in June to 2.2%. Meanwhile, loans to the private sector plunged deeper into negative territory, from -1.6% y-o-y to -1.9%. These developments are clearly at odds with recent good news. Large negative flows for companies The depressed dynamics in […]

United States: weak durable goods orders report in July

On the back of sharp falls back in volatile defence and civilian aircraft orders, total durable goods orders fell by a massive 7.3% m-o-m in July, well below consensus estimates. More importantly for business capital expenditures, core capital goods orders (i.e. excluding defence and aircrafts) were also down sharply in July (-3.3% m-o-m), as were […]

USA: July sales data encouraging for consumption growth in Q3

Nominal total retail sales rose by 0.2% m-o-m in July, slightly below consensus expectations (+0.3%). However, the figure for June was revised up from +0.4% to +0.6%. This modest increase in July was negatively influenced by another surprising monthly decline in sales of building materials and garden equipment, and by a fall in nominal auto sales (-1.1% m-o-m, following […]

Europe: July’s PMI heralds the end of recession

In July, euro area flash PMI surveys, based solely on Germany and France extended their upward trend and came in stronger than expected. Indeed, the flash euro area manufacturing PMI increased from 48.8 in June to 50.1 in July, above consensus expectations (49.1). Moreover, the flash euro area services PMI rose by 1.3 to 49.6 […]

China: GDP growth slows further in second quarter

Real GDP growth slowed to 7.5% year on year in the second quarter 2013 from 7.7% in the first quarter and 7.9.% in fourth quarter 2012. Activity indicators demonstrate the pace of economy is weakening but there is no evidence of a hard economic landing on the back of stable domestic demand growth. Domestic demand […]

10-year average annual expected returns

In order to calculate estimated long-term returns for the various asset classes it is necessary to devise an effective method and specific models. The uniqueness of our approach, as opposed to traditional models, is that ours is research-based and takes shifts in economic regime into account. Accounting for such shifts lies at the very core of our approach. Economic history has taught us […]

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