The final version of the bailout for Cyprus spared savers with deposits of less than EUR100,000 from being forced to contribute towards rehabilitating and recapitalising the island’s ailing banks. Nevertheless, mere mention of a levy being imposed on deposits was enough to send a fresh crisis of confidence rippling through the eurozone. At the time of writing, the waves do […]
As the following chart shows, the growth in bank assets in Cyprus has become excessive as in Iceland, which caused a massive devaluation and capital controls that are still in place five years later. Although the talk is of taxation, what is really meant is the transfer of wealth from creditors to debtors, which is […]
Though some have roundly criticised the impact the commodities boom has had on the environment and sustainable development, the changes it implies might well turn out to be to Mother Nature’s advantage in the much longer run.
We maintain our forecast of a 0.1% q-o-q GDP contraction in Q1 2013 for the euro area as a whole, and respectively -0.5% (consensus: -0.1%) for 2013 and 0.9% (consensus: 0.9%) for 2014. Worse than expected Euro area industrial production fell by 0.4% m-o-m in January, worse than the 0.1% m-o-m decrease expected by the […]
Following the tax hikes households faced at the beginning of the year (mainly on the back of the expiry of the payroll tax cuts), what happens to consumption in the first few months of the year is key for the US economic outlook.
We are raising our forecast for Swiss GDP growth modestly in 2013 from 1.5% to 1.7%. Consensus expectations are currently much lower at 1.1%. Our forecast for 2014 remains unchanged at 2.0% (consensus: 1.6%).
Today’s picture tends to confirm that, except for Germany and a few close trading partners, the economic outlook continues to be gloomy in the euro area. The annual growth rate of the euro area M3 monetary aggregate was almost unchanged at 3.5% y-o-y in January from 3.4% in December 2012, but above consensus expectations (3.2% […]
-0.6% q-o-q growth confirmed in Q4 The second release of Germany’s Q4 GDP confirmed the first estimate of -0.6% q-o-q growth (-2.3% q-o-q annualised and 0.4% y-o-y). The result for the entire year 2012 remained 0.7%. Contraction essentially due to falling exports The breakdown of Q4 German GDP showed that the final consumption expenditure of […]