Growth is gradually normalising as cyclical weaknesses abate, and we expect fairly healthy rates of economic growth in developed economies in 2016. Moreover, we believe that an innovation shock could boost growth in the coming years — and indeed that a technological innovation shock has already begun, although its effects are still concentrated on certain sectors for now.
Since 2009, major central banks such as the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and others have largely determined the trends in the major asset classes of both emerging and developed countries: equities, sovereign and corporate bonds, and currencies. Investors found their guiding light in the central banks. […]
The Vix, a widely used measure of equity-market volatility, was in a systemic risk regime for 15 days this year, compared with just two days in 2014 and none at all in 2013, as shown by the chart below. This year’s experience of volatility is still not extensive in a historical comparison, but it still […]
After successful careers in skiing, retailing and marketing, Florence and Daniel Cathiard sold all their business interests in 1990 and bought Château Smith Haut Lafitte, applying their skills to awakening a sleeping beauty.
We have updated our estimates of expected returns in the new edition of Horizon. Expected returns for almost all asset classes are lower than in a historical comparison—in many cases substantially so. A traditional 60/40 portfolio (60% equities, 40% government bonds) would return just 6.9% annually with an innovation shock and 4.2% without, on our […]