Posts Tagged ‘debt crisis’

Dollar – Euro exchange rate: downward risks on the euro remain sizeable

Our view – expressed in March – that the euro would gain ground against the US dollar was clearly wrong. On the back of a violent re-intensification of the euro area sovereign and banking crisis, the euro fell heavily against the greenback recently: -5.6% since the beginning of May to USD1.25 per EUR currently. What […]

Euro area: economic slowdown will test monetary union

Leaks of steam from the German euro area locomotive are likely to trigger additional worries on the future of the monetary union. Furthermore, weak German figures for the second quarter are likely to reinforce the impression that synchronic austerity measures in Europe are killing growth. This will certainly result in widening sovereign spreads within the […]

The European Central Bank stays on hold

Mario Draghi was expected to address three points at yesterday’s press conference: i) a possible third 3Y LTRO, ii) hint on the probability of a monetary policy decision, and iii) details on its new concept of “Growth Compact”. The market proved fairly disappointed  with what Mario Draghi had to say. On a possible new LTRO, Mario […]

The Swiss National Bank keeps its target floor of CHF 1.20 per euro

As widely expected, the SNB kept its target three-month LIBOR rate on hold at 0.0% at its quarterly monetary policy meeting today. Regarding its exchange rate policy, the central bank didn’t raise the floor set at CHF 1.20 per euro. Expectations that this floor would be raised to 1.25 or 1.30 at today’s SNB quarterly meeting were […]

European Union Summit: The jigsaw pieces are slowly coming together

After an 11-hour marathon of negotiations in Brussels, the euro area’s heads of state sealed an agreement in response to the crisis at 5 o’clock in the morning on Friday. While a euro break-up is still not completely unthinkable, an exit to the crisis now appears to be feasible. Decisions were taken on two fronts. […]

Don’t fight the Swiss National Bank

On 6 September, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) set a maximum value for the franc at EUR/CHF 1.20. After about two months, we can say that this exceptional operation has been successful. The Swiss franc has remained above 1.20 without experiencing any evident speculative attack. Moreover, early SNB criticism has waned because this operation has […]

The euro area crisis summit of Wednesday is likely to disappoint

The work before the European authorities appears too huge to be solved in just a few days. The European crisis was not solved on Sunday and probably won’t be solved on Wednesday, when European heads of state are meeting once more. Five areas are currently in the focus of policymakers: sustainability of public finances, Greece, […]

The SNB sets a maximum value for the franc

This morning, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) set a minimum exchange rate at CHF 1.20 per euro, the latest measure to prevent the strengthening of the Swiss currency. It should be noted that the SNB is not pegging the franc to the euro; it is merely setting a threshold the Swiss franc should not exceed. […]

Euro survival threatened by the economic downturn

The second release of the PMI survey for August confirmed the sharp deterioration in economic sentiment. In particular, manufacturing sentiment led the movement with a fall into contraction territory in August (49.0). PMI services resisted, edging only slightly lower from 51.6 to 51.5. Nevertheless, the overall index fell to 50.7 from 51.2 in July. While […]

United States: Debt ceiling drama

The debt ceiling drama is heating up. However, we continue to believe the most likely scenario is that a last minute deal will be struck, bringing some welcome relief to the financial markets. If no agreement is reached ahead of the 2 August deadline (a rather unlikely scenario albeit a possible one), it would obviously […]

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