Posts Tagged ‘ECB’

US bonds: risks mounting

Financial markets are still in a hesitant frame of mind, alternating rally and correction phases depending on how powerful the effects of two quite distinct and opposing influences are on the global economic outlook. On the one hand, US banks and households are entering the closing stages of their orderly deleveraging drive, with the upshot […]

Europe a drag on the world economy

Deflationary forces continue rumbling menacingly in the background to developed economies. They stem from the significant deleveraging being pushed through, most strikingly in Europe which, according to our calculations, is probably running about 3 years behind the US in the whole process of dismantling the wall of debt. Deflationary pressures in Europe are being aggravated […]

The European Central Bank stays on hold

Mario Draghi was expected to address three points at yesterday’s press conference: i) a possible third 3Y LTRO, ii) hint on the probability of a monetary policy decision, and iii) details on its new concept of “Growth Compact”. The market proved fairly disappointed  with what Mario Draghi had to say. On a possible new LTRO, Mario […]

Gold and the S&P 500: heading for a shift in regime?

The April 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for reading and downloading. We start previewing the articles of this edition with the opening column by Chief Investment Officer Yves Bonzon. Gold and the S&P 500: heading for a shift in regime? The first quarter of 2012 ended on a uniformly positive note for risk assets. They […]

Gold and the S&P 500: heading for a shift in regime?

The April 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for reading and downloading. We start previewing the articles of this edition with the opening column by Chief Investment Officer Yves Bonzon. Gold and the S&P 500: heading for a shift in regime? The first quarter of 2012 ended on a uniformly positive note for risk assets. They […]

We revise our forecast for the EUR/USD cross to 1.40 in 6 months

We have updated our view on the EUR/USD cross strengthening towards 1.40 in the next 6 months, due to four indicators suggesting that the single currency should appreciate:   1. Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic have lengthened their balance sheets via two quantitative easing (QE) programmes and an operation Twist in the […]

Investment Strategy Highlights Brief for April 2012

Focus on equity markets Our investment strategy reflects the macroeconomic environment which we describe below. Over the past few weeks, financial markets continued to be torn between the deflationary forces of the global economic backdrop and renewed optimism linked to improved economic data. Markets continue to be in such a state, alternating hopes of central […]

Perspectives: March 2012 strategy

Equity markets were in high-volatility mode in the second half of 2011, reflecting intense pressures exerted by systemic risk, but they have now shifted back into the average-volatility regime. Find more analysis and views in this month’s Perspectives, available for downloading. Reflation hopes encouraging the markets Economic numbers have continued to show progress in both […]

Euro area: Second 3Y LTRO, the ECB part of the solution

Success for the second 3Y LTRO Following today’s second 3-year long-term refinancing operation (3Y LTRO), 800 financial institutions tapped €529.5bn liquidity, well above December’s first operation, which was worth 489bn (bid by 523 participants). The amount was also above the 470bn predicted by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. €311bn additional liquidity In order to estimate the […]

Euro area: 3Y LTRO alleviates the credit crunch

Monetary aggregates remain depressed The annual growth rate of the monetary aggregate M3 jumped to 2.5% y-o-y in January, from 1.5% in December 2011, but remains well below its reference value (4.5%). Loans to the private sector remained subdued at 1.1% y-o-y compared to 1.0% the previous month. The 3Y LTRO[definition] helped to alleviate the […]

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