Equity risk in macro managers’ portfolios is below the historical average. Many expect stock markets to trend lower – not necessarily because of a coming recession but because of peak margins and outflows from petrodollar-dependent sovereign wealth funds. The effectiveness of QE programmes is also being questioned as growth and inflation remain subdued. In Europe and […]
Uncertainties related to the slowdown in China’s economy cranked up financial stresses and strains on companies producing raw materials. In addition, the US dollar’s rise was an added volatility factor as it increased the cost of debt issued by emerging-market borrowers. Falls of 5% on the S&P 500, 6.4% on the Stoxx Europe 600 and […]
One has to go back to 1897 to find such a bad start for equity markets. This note will analyse the situation on the markets and the prospects for a rebound. As often in a large correction, one can find many causes. We think the following are the most significant: Monetary policy running out of […]
Chinese equity markets experienced a substantial sell-off in early January, with the CSI 300 losing 7% on both 4 and 7 January. This sent jitters across global financial markets. The latest bout of market instability in China does not appear to have been related to any change in the country’s economic fundamentals. Rather, a conjunction […]
Since 2009, major central banks such as the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and others have largely determined the trends in the major asset classes of both emerging and developed countries: equities, sovereign and corporate bonds, and currencies. Investors found their guiding light in the central banks. […]
As markets reached new highs in June, many wonder if we are heading for a serious market correction. In this video, Yves Bonzon, Chief Investment Officer at Pictet Wealth Management gives his views on that topic.
After posting some very handsome gains in 2013, developed-world equity markets look to offer the highest expected returns among the various asset classes for the year ahead. At constant valuation levels, returns should be capable of matching estimated corporate earnings growth. Strategy predicated on a trio of fundamental factors Our investment strategy for 2014 is influenced by three key factors likely to affect how financial […]
The US economy has progressively been sending down firmer roots to cement self-sustaining growth of around 3%, marking a key phase that will ultimately bring about a new regime for financial markets: one where GDP and earnings growth will be the influential fundamental risk factors, marking a shift from the 2008-2012 crisis era when systemic risk and central banks’ monetary policy played those roles. In […]