Posts Tagged ‘eurozone’

Germany and the rest of euro area exhibits an increasing divergence

Composite PMI: first increase after two month of decline In December, the flash euro area manufacturing PMI expanded by 1.1 points to 52.7, well above consensus expectations (51.9). By contrast, the flash euro area services PMI continued its downward trend by declining from 51.2 in November to 51.0 in December, below consensus expectations (51.5). As […]

Industrial production in the eurozone still in the doldrums

In contrast to the increase expected by consensus (0.3% m-o-m), eurozone industrial production (excluding construction) fell sharply by 1.1% m-o-m in October, recording the largest monthly decrease since September 2012 and its second successive month of contraction. The September figure was revised up from -0.5% m-o-m to -0.2% m-o-m. As a result, the October figure […]

The Fed at the centre of the economic cycle in 2014

The world’s largest economy is on the verge of embarking on a new phase. Since the sub-prime crisis of 2008, American households have been busy deleveraging. That cycle today is on the cusp of shifting into reverse. Moreover, the Fed is also preparing to negotiate a sea-change in its monetary policy with the forthcoming move […]

Germany: Weak entry point in Q4

Industrial production: Second consecutive month of decline German industrial production including construction fell by 1.2% m-o-m in October, compared with consensus expectations of a 0.7% m-o-m increase, recording its second consecutive month of decline. The September figure was revised slightly up from -0.9% m-o-m to -0.7% m-o-m. As a result, the October figure was 1.2% […]

Monetary aggregates of the eurozone confirm deflationary risks

Monetary developments weakened further in October. The annual growth rate of eurozone M3 monetary aggregate decelerated by 1.4% y-o-y after posting 2.0% y-o-y in September, below the consensus expectations (1.7% y-o-y) and marking the lowest annual growth rate since October 2011. Meanwhile, loans to the private sector, which were already negative (-1.6% y-o-y) in September, […]

PMI surveys in the eurozone: further divergence in French and German surveys

The flash eurozone manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) increased slightly from 51.3 in October to 51.5 in November, in line with consensus expectations. By contrast, the flash eurozone services PMI slipped by 0.7 points to 50.9 in November, weaker than consensus expectations (51.9). As a result, the composite PMI, which is a weighted average of […]

The euro area’s PMI survey indicates a soft entry point in the fourth quarter

After six consecutive months of improvement, the euro area flash composite PMI decreased from 52.2 in September to 51.5 in October, while the consensus had expected further improvement (52.4). It is worth noting that today’s fall merely offsets the previous month’s increase and the index is still higher than it was at the beginning of […]

Assets, one by one, undergoing shifts in regime

The US economy has progressively been sending down firmer roots to cement self-sustaining growth of around 3%, marking a key phase that will ultimately bring about a new regime for financial markets: one where GDP and earnings growth will be the influential fundamental risk factors, marking a shift from the 2008-2012 crisis era when systemic risk and central banks’ monetary policy played those roles. In […]

Macroeconomics: all eyes riveted on the US

Although self-sustaining economic growth is gradually taking hold in the US, the Federal Reserve decided to bide its time before instigating its move to rein in its buying of assets so as not to endanger the upswing underway. Nonetheless, at the time of writing, the brinkmanship by politicians on Capitol Hill over setting the 2014 budget and raising the Federal […]

Germany: Economic activity

In August, German industrial production increased by 1.4% m-o-m, better than consensus expectations (1.0% m-o-m). Moreover, the July figure was revised up from -1.7% m-o-m to -1.1% m-o-m. As a result, July and August average industrial production continued to increase (by 0.6% q-o-q compared with Q2, against 1.5% q-o-q in Q2).   Factory orders: disappointing […]

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