Posts Tagged ‘gdp’

Eurozone: slight deterioration in manufacturing sentiment in September

The eurozone flash manufacturing PMI decreased from 51.4 in August to 51.1 in September, a result that was against consensus expectations of 51.7. By contrast, the eurozone flash services PMI edged up by 1.4 points to 52.1 in September, above consensus expectations (51.0) and reached its highest level since June 2011. As a result, the […]

Euro area’s industrial production data: back to reality

Eurozone industrial production fell by 1.5% m-o-m in July, much worse than consensus expectations (-0.3%). June was revised slightly down, from 0.7% m-o-m to 0.6%. In comparison with last year, activity decreased by 2.1% y-o-y in July, a marked deterioration from the -0.4% y-o-y recorded in June. As a result, production fell to its weakest […]

Europe: July’s PMI heralds the end of recession

In July, euro area flash PMI surveys, based solely on Germany and France extended their upward trend and came in stronger than expected. Indeed, the flash euro area manufacturing PMI increased from 48.8 in June to 50.1 in July, above consensus expectations (49.1). Moreover, the flash euro area services PMI rose by 1.3 to 49.6 […]

Encouraging prospects for US household consumption

Prospects for US household consumption in Q3 remain rather encouraging overall in our view.  In addition to strong car sales (see chart below), consumer confidence also improved sharply over the past three months. Nevertheless, the data on retail sales was softer than expected – a good illustration of the fact that the very optimistic growth […]

Mario Draghi admits that the European Central Bank’s options are limited

In May’s press conference, Mario Draghi created several expectations: 1. Further refi rate cut: “we will stand ready to act if needed” 2. The deposit rate, currently at 0%, could be brought negative: “we are technically ready” 3. Joint measures could be taken with the European Investment Bank (EIB) to revive the ABS market in […]

Euro area: Improvement in indicators does not herald the end of the recession yet

-0.2% q-o-q GDP growth confirmed in Q1 Eurostat’s second release for Q1 2013 GDP confirmed the preliminary estimate of a 0.2% q-o-q fall in GDP (-0.8% q-o-q annualised), consistent with a figure of -1.1% y-o-y. This was the sixth consecutive quarter of contraction for the euro area as a whole. Improvement in private consumption The […]

US ISM Manufacturing index down in May, non-manufacturing slightly up

Our model that attempts to explain GDP growth based on the  behaviour of both ISM indices suggests that GDP growth fell to as low as around 1.6% in May, and 1.6% on average in April and May. Although soft, these findings are not pointing to anything very different from our forecast of GDP growing by […]

United States: astonishing acceleration in house price recovery

There are several indices measuring US house prices. The most commented on is the S&P Case-Shiller index, but our favourite is the CoreLogic home price index. This is the one used by the Fed to estimate real estate wealth, and it has the advantage of being published earlier than the Case-Shiller index. April’s figures for […]

United States: second quarter slowdown in consumption growth confirmed

Following the tax hikes US households faced at the beginning of the year (mainly on the back of the expiry of the payroll tax cuts), the strength of consumption in the first quarter was quite surprising. Consumer spending grew by a very strong 3.4% (revised yesterday from 3.2%). Nevertheless, some negative lagged effects were expected, […]

Germany: the Ifo survey points to a mild recovery

The Ifo business climate index rebounded markedly from 104.4 in April to 105.7 in May, well above expectations as the consensus was for an unchanged outcome. The rebound was entirely based on the ‘current assessment’ which rebounded from 107.3 to 110.0 in May whereas the ‘expectations’ component remained flat at 101.6. A rebound led by […]

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