Posts Tagged ‘growth’

Emerging debt is back in fashion

In this video, Christophe Donay, Head of Strategy for Pictet Wealth Management, explains why emerging debt could benefit from a temporary coincidental re-synchronisation of economic growth.

United States: bad weather has a negative impact on the manufacturing index

The ISM manufacturing survey published on Tuesday was surprisingly weak. The headline index fell sharply from 56.5 in December to 51.3 in January, well below consensus estimates (56.0), and its lowest reading since May 2013. The deterioration was quite broad-based, with the fall in the ‘new orders’ sub-component particularly striking, as it plunged from a […]

US budget policy: deadline missed, government shutdown has begun

On 1 October, for the first time in almost 18 years, the US federal administration started a partial shutdown. The Congress failed to vote a ‘Continuing Resolution’ that would have extended government spending authority. The previous one was set to expire at the end of fiscal year 2013, i.e. at midnight on Tuesday. Government shutdown: […]

Eurozone: slight deterioration in manufacturing sentiment in September

The eurozone flash manufacturing PMI decreased from 51.4 in August to 51.1 in September, a result that was against consensus expectations of 51.7. By contrast, the eurozone flash services PMI edged up by 1.4 points to 52.1 in September, above consensus expectations (51.0) and reached its highest level since June 2011. As a result, the […]

US monetary policy: ‘Tapering’ not on a preset course

Wednesday’s statement by the Federal Open Market Committee and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s press conference were more dovish than expected. The main surprise was that the Fed decided not to start winding down asset purchases. Most forecasters, including us, were expecting a small monthly ‘taper’ of $10bn to $15bn. This surprise pushed long-term rates and […]

Europe: July’s PMI heralds the end of recession

In July, euro area flash PMI surveys, based solely on Germany and France extended their upward trend and came in stronger than expected. Indeed, the flash euro area manufacturing PMI increased from 48.8 in June to 50.1 in July, above consensus expectations (49.1). Moreover, the flash euro area services PMI rose by 1.3 to 49.6 […]

Mario Draghi admits that the European Central Bank’s options are limited

In May’s press conference, Mario Draghi created several expectations: 1. Further refi rate cut: “we will stand ready to act if needed” 2. The deposit rate, currently at 0%, could be brought negative: “we are technically ready” 3. Joint measures could be taken with the European Investment Bank (EIB) to revive the ABS market in […]

Euro area: Improvement in indicators does not herald the end of the recession yet

-0.2% q-o-q GDP growth confirmed in Q1 Eurostat’s second release for Q1 2013 GDP confirmed the preliminary estimate of a 0.2% q-o-q fall in GDP (-0.8% q-o-q annualised), consistent with a figure of -1.1% y-o-y. This was the sixth consecutive quarter of contraction for the euro area as a whole. Improvement in private consumption The […]

United States: astonishing acceleration in house price recovery

There are several indices measuring US house prices. The most commented on is the S&P Case-Shiller index, but our favourite is the CoreLogic home price index. This is the one used by the Fed to estimate real estate wealth, and it has the advantage of being published earlier than the Case-Shiller index. April’s figures for […]

Germany: the Ifo survey points to a mild recovery

The Ifo business climate index rebounded markedly from 104.4 in April to 105.7 in May, well above expectations as the consensus was for an unchanged outcome. The rebound was entirely based on the ‘current assessment’ which rebounded from 107.3 to 110.0 in May whereas the ‘expectations’ component remained flat at 101.6. A rebound led by […]

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