Posts Tagged ‘PMI’

Marked improvement in euro area PMI surveys in January

Today’s Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI) release confirms the contrasted picture between Germany and the rest of the euro area. Indeed, the impressive improvement (+ 3.8 points) in the German manufacturing PMI is in line with the recent business confidence surveys (IFO, Zew) and confirms our scenario of a marked recovery of the German economy in […]

Euro area's PMIs: German industry confirms its ability to recover

The flash euro area manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved strongly by 1.4 points to 47.5 in January, well above consensus expectations (46.6). Moreover, the flash euro area services PMI picked up from 47.8 in December to 48.3 in January, better than the consensus expectations (48.0). As a result, the flash euro area composite PMI […]

Euro area: December's PMI survey confirms signs of stabilisation

Today’s relatively good outcome in euro area manufacturing PMI numbers tends to confirm recent signs of stabilisation. Nevertheless, the survey’s stabilisation at a low level is in line with an ongoing contraction in economic activity. Accordingly, real GDP is confirmed as recording a deeper contraction in Q4 than in Q3. Hopes of recovery in 2013 […]

Euro area: maintaining our forecast of a deeper contraction in the third quarter

As during the previous quarter, the euro area will probably be stuck in recession in the current one as well. However, last week’s Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) release is noticeable in the sense that it is the first serious sign of economic stabilisation after several months of deterioration. The only exceptions, so far, have been […]

Euro area: economic slowdown will test monetary union

Leaks of steam from the German euro area locomotive are likely to trigger additional worries on the future of the monetary union. Furthermore, weak German figures for the second quarter are likely to reinforce the impression that synchronic austerity measures in Europe are killing growth. This will certainly result in widening sovereign spreads within the […]

The Chinese economy expands in January on strengthening domestic demand

New economic figures indicate that China’s economy seems to be holding up well and stabilizing: domestic demand is cushioning weakness in global demand. The January manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in China climbed to 50.5 from 50.3 in December, well above market expectations of 49.6. This increasingly positive economic picture underlines the improvement of monetary […]

Euro area: still likely to contract in 2012

Eurozone statistics are likely to continue to deteriorate probably until mid-Q1 due to the traditional lag between surveys and activity, even if the recent stabilisation in surveys is confirmed in the following months. As a result, we maintain our forecast of a contraction of 0.1% on average for 2012 for the whole euro area. Nevertheless, […]

United States: Manufacturing output grew robustly in Q3

The bounce back in US industrial production was quite sizeable in Q3, and encouragingly, not limited to auto production. The overall set of data confirms that the sharp deceleration in manufacturing output growth witnessed in Q2 was partly linked to temporary factors such as the supply-chain disruptions linked to the Japanese earthquake. Indeed, industrial production […]

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