Posts Tagged ‘USA’

USA: modest export growth in January-Feburary

The US trade deficit narrowed marginally in February to $45.8bn. The small drop was mostly linked to the oil balance Between Q4 and January-February, real exports grew more modestly than expected, whilst real imports bounced back very strongly As a result, we are revising our forecast for Q1 GDP growth from 3¼% to 2¾%  The […]

USA: employment report

Payrolls rose by a healthy 216,000 in March, above consensus estimates. Encouragingly as well, the unemployment rate fell further from 8.9% in February to 8.8% in March Other data were also upbeat, in particular due to an upward revision of February’s average workweek. As a result, aggregate weekly payrolls (a proxy for labour income) grew […]

USA: continuing trend of robust recovery in profits

NIPA corporate profits rose by 9.7% q-o-q annualised in Q4 10, slightly higher than in Q3 (+6.6%) Profits from financial corporations bounced back further sharply q-o-q but non-financial profits actually declined modestly The third estimate of Q3 GDP data was accompanied by a set of economy wide statistics on corporate profits in a National Accounts […]

USA: manufacturing output growth picking up sharply

Total industrial production dropped by 0.1% m-o-m in February, due to a fall in the most volatile component (utilities) However, manufacturing production was up 0.4% and January’s number was revised sharply up As a result, growth in manufacturing output bounced back sharply over the past few months, consistent with what was suggested by recent ISM […]

USA: consumer price index

Core inflation moved further back up Core CPI rose by 0.2% m-o-m in January, above consensus expectations of +0.1% for the second month in a row Y-o-y core inflation accelerated further from 1.0% in January to 1.1% in February We believe that core inflation will pick up further modestly during the course of 2011. Our […]

USA: retail sales

February data strong and January number revised substantially up Retail sales rose buoyantly in February and January’s data were revised substantially up As a result, the Q1 slowdown in consumption growth appears less marked than previously suggested As a result, our forecast for consumption growth in Q1 (+2.5% q-o-q annualised, following +4.1% in Q4) can […]

USA: Credit to private sector

Net new credit positive in Q4 2010, for the first time since Q3 2008. Overall credit to the non financial private sector increased in Q4, in quite an encouraging development Details show wide contrasts: lending to the corporate sector is back to “normal”, whereas home mortgage debt is still in sizable contraction The Federal Reserve’s […]

USA: International trade

The US trade deficit widened sharply in January to $46.3bn. Higher oil prices accounted for only a small part of the deficit increase Over the past couple of months, both real exports and real imports grew very strongly This strength in both foreign and domestic demand indicates robust economic growth The US trade deficit (trade […]

USA: employment report

Here are the key highlights from the employment statistics: Payrolls rose by a healthy 192,000 in February, in line with consensus estimates. Moreover, the net revision for the previous 2 months was +58K Encouragingly, the unemployment rate fell further from 9.0% in January to 8.9% in February Other data were softer. Aggregate weekly payrolls (a […]

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