Posts Tagged ‘USA’

United States: second quarter slowdown in consumption growth confirmed

Following the tax hikes US households faced at the beginning of the year (mainly on the back of the expiry of the payroll tax cuts), the strength of consumption in the first quarter was quite surprising. Consumer spending grew by a very strong 3.4% (revised yesterday from 3.2%). Nevertheless, some negative lagged effects were expected, […]

US federal budget deficit: spectacular improvement

Monthly data published at the end of last week confirmed that the federal budget deficit has fallen very rapidly. Over the first seven months of fiscal year (FY) 2013, i.e. from October 2012 to April 2013, the deficit reached $487.6bn, 32.3% less than over the same period a year before. This sharp improvement was mainly linked to a surge […]

United States: Manufacturing output fell significantly in April

Total industrial production fell by 0.5% m-o-m in April, further than the consensus estimate (-0.2%). Moreover, the rise recorded in March was revised down from +0.4% to +0.3%. Part of this weakness was explained by a widely expected contraction in the production of utilities (-3.7% m-o-m), following a surge in March (+6.4%), amid exceptionally cold […]

United States: surprisingly resilient retail sales for April

Yesterday’s retail sales numbers were surprisingly positive. Nominal retail sales inched up by 0.1% m-o-m in April, well above consensus expectations (-0.3%). The figure for March was revised down from -0.4% to -0.5%, but the one for February was also revised up by 0.1% (from +1.0% to +1.1%). As expected following the sharp m-o-m decline […]

United states. employment report

Although today’s set of data will lessen market fears of a marked economic slowdown, we continue to expect growth to slow substantially in Q2 before regaining momentum in H2. Non-farm payroll employment rose by 165,000 m-o-m in April 2013, slightly above consensus expectations (+140,000). Moreover, March’s figure was revised up (from +88,000 to +138,000), as […]

United States: GDP below expectations in Q1, but strong growth in private demand

US real GDP grew by 2.5% q-o-q annualised in Q1 2013, below the consensus estimate of +3.0%. This healthy reading must be put into perspective as it represents to a large extent a catch-up following a very low growth rate in Q4 2012, which was negatively impacted by hurricane Sandy. On a year-on-year basis GDP […]

US residential construction: housing starts reached a new cycle high in March

The result is that overall in Q1 housing starts were 7.2% higher than in Q4 2012 (non-annualised) and 103% higher than at their low point in April 2009. Permits were less upbeat, declining by 3.9% m-o-m to 902,000 (i.e. below starts). Housing starts have risen sharply over the past two years but remain fairly low by historical standards. Even after […]

United States: Surprisingly strong consumption growth in Q1 not so strong after all

This sharp decline in sales in March was for a good part explained by a m-o-m fall in gasoline prices, which weighed on sales at gasoline stations (-2.2% m-o-m, following +5.4% in February) and a contraction in nominal auto sales (-0.5% m-o-m, following +1.1% in February) – roughly in line with what was suggested by already published unit car […]

Appetite for risk mounting faster than risk is diminishing

The February 2013 issue of Perspectives is now available for downloading. In this month’s strategy section, Pictet’s analysts explain that although some near-term risk factors, such as those stemming from the ‘fiscal cliff’ in the US, have been dispelled, other quite significant ones, such as solvency risk for peripheral eurozone member states, are still blighting […]

US employment report sees substantial upward revisions for 2011 and 2012

Overall, today’s employment report was encouraging, although headline numbers were not better than expected. The pace of job creation has averaged 200k over the past 3 months, a significant improvement. Non-farm payroll employment rose by 157,000 m-o-m in January 2013, marginally below consensus expectations (+165,000). However, December’s figure was revised up (from +155,000 to +196,000), […]

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