'Perspectives', April-May 2019

The year of the doves

'Perspectives Special Edition', January 2019

“The Three Amigos”

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China: Q1 growth beats expectations

The National Bureau of Statistics of China published Q1 GDP figures along with some key economic indicators for March. While we had previously flagged the upside risk to our earlier GDP forecast following the rebound in PMIs and strong credit numbers, the latest data releases still surprised to the upside. In light of the strong Q1 results and […]

Business cycle could define Trump’s re-election chances

As we move closer to the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump has been blatantly leaning on the Federal Reserve to be more accommodative and has been trying to appoint nominees to the Fed board who share his preference for loose monetary policy. The countdown to the 2020 elections also seems to be prompting Trump to […]

Swiss policy mix review

The Swiss federal budget is governed by a strict expenditure rule, which is enshrined in the Constitution. Since its introduction, the ratio of public debt-to-GDP has been significantly reduced, falling back to its early-90s level. At the close of 2018, the Swiss federal budget registered a significant surplus of CHF 2.9 billion, compared with budget […]

China: strong credit growth in March again

Chinese credit data surprised on the upside in March, following a surge in January and a sharp fall in February. Monthly total social financing (TSF) came in at Rmb2.86 trillion, much stronger than the market consensus forecast of Rmb1.85 trillion. New bank loans also surprised on the upside at Rmb1.69 trillion, compared with the consensus forecast of […]

Weekly View — Eyes on guidance

Last week delivered encouraging news on the outlook for global trade as improved Chinese exports and credit figures were seen as signs that the global trade slowdown would soon turn. On the back of March’s rebound in Chinese purchasing manager indices (PMIs), this means that as well as good news for the global trade outlook, […]

Brexit update: a very British fudge

Following the EU Council summit, 31 October 2019 is the new Brexit deadline. Given that we see limited probability of a sudden unknotting of the current UK parliamentary gridlock, our core scenario is that the deadline will be extended again. The current timeframe is too short to really work on an alternative to the current ‘Withdrawal Agreement’, which has […]

Switzerland: Lower growth, lower inflation

The Swiss economy posted impressive GDP growth in 2018, although there was significant divergence between strong growth in the first half and stagnation in the second. Overall, we expect Swiss GDP to expand by 1.3% in 2019, down substantially from 2.5% in 2018. Risks to our growth outlook for Switzerland are tilted to the downside. […]

Update to our earnings scenario

Earnings estimates in developed markets have been cut continuously over the past six months. The consensus expectation for earnings growth in 2019 for the S&P 500 is now around 3.5%. This compares with stellar earnings growth of 24.1% in the US in 2018, thanks in large part to the end-2017 US tax cuts announced by […]

Indian elections start today

Today, India’s 2019 general elections to determine the next Lok Sabha (the lower house) kick off. India is divided into 543 constituencies, each represented by one member of the Lok Sabha. The party or the coalition that wins a simple majority (272 seats) will form the government. Nearly 900 million voters across the nation will head to […]

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