Author Archive

Weekly View – WHATEVER IT TAKES 2.0

Last week, Mario Draghi made waves in Sintra at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) annual symposium. The ECB president gave a very dovish speech, vindicating markets’ high expectations and eliciting Trump Twitter censure. Draghi came as close as possible without actually committing, declaring that the central bank stands ready to act by using all instruments […]

Weekly view—Pre-emptive guidance

As uncertainty continues to run high, so does anticipation around the Fed’s meeting this Wednesday. The Fed is now confronted with a dilemma: economic data is not soft enough to merit rate cuts, as evidenced by last week’s US retail sales data. However, inflation expectations have reached new lows, adding pressure on the Fed to […]

Weekly view – Dovish murmurs

ECB president Mario Draghi has gone as dovish as possible without cutting rates, saying for the first time that he is prepared to cut interest rates and redeploy quantitative easing before he leaves the bank this autumn. Any interest rate rise in Europe will not happen until the second half of 2020 at the earliest, […]

WEEKLY VIEW – ¡ÁNDALE! ¡ÁNDALE!

Last week, President Donald Trump announced a 5% tariff on all imports from Mexico to take effect from 10 June unless the Mexican government moves to stem illegal immigration across the US-Mexico border. This rate could then rise by 5% each month to reach 25% by October if the US is not satisfied with Mexico’s […]

Weekly View – MAY DAY, MAY DAY

As the results of European Parliament elections roll in, some unexpected outcomes are taking shape. While populists across the Union did win new seats, they did not fare as well as expected, while Green parties gained significant ground as voter turnout rose for the first time in four decades. Surprises at the country level could […]

Weekly View – Modi makes it

We are in the midst of a decisive elections season, from the surprise, poll-defying victory of the conservative coalition in Australia and Indian general elections last weekend to the European parliament elections in the week ahead. Exit polls suggest Indian prime minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata party are likely to return to power […]

Weekly View – Game of chicken

As a US-China trade negotiation impasse became evident last week, markets corrected a bit, particularly cyclical sectors. Given the strong US economy, Trump is feeling empowered to pursue his agenda, raising existing tariffs from 10-25% on USD 200bn worth of goods with immediate effect and threatening more. Now we will wait to see how China […]

Weekly View – The final countdown

Last week markets were relatively muted, with commodities down, developed markets flat and emerging markets up slightly. That brief period of calm has already ended, with Trump’s Sunday tweets sending Chinese markets sharply down on Monday. With the Chinese scheduled to attend the next round of trade negotiations in the US on Wednesday, the US […]

Weekly View – A Socialist victory

Spain’s governing Socialist party swept to victory at the weekend’s general elections, which enjoyed the highest turnout since 2008, with a 75% participation rate. Taking 29% of the vote however, the Socialist PSOE party is far short of an absolute majority and will need to form a coalition, which will likely be fragmented and unstable […]

Weekly View – Europe’s “black hole”

Positive economic data has sent relief through markets, with encouraging news coming out of the world’s two biggest economies. The Chinese economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, as the government’s stimulus policy begins to take effect. In the US, a rebound in consumer spending resulted in retails sales posting their biggest gain […]

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