The National Bureau of Statistics of China published Q1 GDP figures along with some key economic indicators for March. While we had previously flagged the upside risk to our earlier GDP forecast following the rebound in PMIs and strong credit numbers, the latest data releases still surprised to the upside. In light of the strong Q1 results and […]
Chinese credit data surprised on the upside in March, following a surge in January and a sharp fall in February. Monthly total social financing (TSF) came in at Rmb2.86 trillion, much stronger than the market consensus forecast of Rmb1.85 trillion. New bank loans also surprised on the upside at Rmb1.69 trillion, compared with the consensus forecast of […]
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy interest rate (RBI repo rate) by 25 basis points (bps) last week, bringing it down to 6.0%. This was the RBI’s second interest rate cut this year under its new governor Shaktikanta Das. With this move, the RBI has fully reversed last year’s rate hikes. Since the change of […]
Chinese PMI readings moved back into expansion territory in March. The official Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, up from 49.2 in February, and beating the Bloomberg consensus of 49.6, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8, also up from 49.9 in February and beating the consensus expectation of 50.0. Details of the PMI survey report generally point […]
The latest economic indicators show that Chinese growth momentum remained soft in January and February, consistent with our expectations. Industrial activity was especially weak, weighed down by the mining and utility sectors. Growth in fixed asset investment improved slightly, mainly driven by the acceleration in property investment, but investment in the manufacturing sector declined. However, […]
The new economic targets for 2019 and policy announcements are broadly in line with our expectations. They generally reflect Chinese policymakers’ intention to support growth in the face of economic headwinds but to avoid massive stimulus. The target for real GDP growth for 2019 was lowered to a range of between 6.0% and 6.5%, from […]
Chinese official manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing manager indices (PMI) fell again in February, following a pause in January. The manufacturing PMI came in at 49.2, down from 49.5 in the previous month. The non-manufacturing PMI, while continuing to signal expansion, also fell in February — to 54.3, from 54.7 the previous month. The data show […]
China’s credit numbers for January surprised on the upside. The figures show strong credit creation in the first month of the year, especially in corporate bonds and bank bill financing. The contraction in the shadow banking sector has also moderated. This suggests that the PBoC’s monetary easing measures, which started in Q2 2018, are gaining […]
Japanese GDP rebounded by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q4 (1.4% annualised) after contracting by 0.7% q-o-q in Q3 (-2.6% annualised) due to a series of natural disasters over the summer. In year-over-year (y-o-y) terms, output remained virtually unchanged. Domestic demand was the main driving force for the rebound in Q4, while external demand continued to […]
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a further reduction in banks’ required reserve ratios (RRR) on Friday by 1 percentage point. According to the central bank, this round of RRR cuts will inject roughly Rmb800 billion of net liquidity into the banking sector. In our view, this move was partly motivated by the economy’s […]
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