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Euro/USD: things look pretty stable

The euro has remained relatively stable relative to the US dollar in the wake of the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Federal Reserve (Fed) September policy meetings. Growth and interest rate differentials, two key drivers for the EUR/USD rate, suggest things could stay this way. The growth differential (based on leading indicators) has barely […]

Scandi currencies hurt by moderating global growth

The ongoing moderation in global growth continues to weigh on Scandinavian currencies despite their undervaluation. In particular, the weak Q2 GDP figure for Sweden is a reminder that weak economic activity in Germany and the UK (two key trading partners) is spreading to other countries. Furthermore, despite Sweden’s and Norway’s defensive features, such as a […]

Brazilian real stands out in EM currency scorecard

In recent months, the global environment has become more challenging for EM currencies. Trade tensions have increased and are weighing on economic activity. Commodity prices have also fallen. Such developments tend to weigh on global appetite for relatively risky EM assets. More hopefully, the global decline in yields could be supportive of EM currencies by […]

Update on gold – bad news is good news

The increased trade tensions following Trump’s 1 August tweet threatening additional tariffs on Chinese goods has boosted the gold price above USD 1,500 per troy ounce. The recent developments are supportive of gold investment demand because of a lower opportunity cost associated with holding gold and greater demand for safe-haven assets. Coupled with strong demand from central banks, the […]

US FX intervention still someway off

The Trump administration has been focusing on the US’s trade deficit with some of its main trading partners such as China and Germany. A strong dollar is exacerbating this deficit and has visibly exasperated President Donald Trump. Indeed, the Fed’s broad dollar index was recently back close to its December 2016 high. In response, and […]

Gold boosted by dovish central banks

The gold price soared to a fresh five-year high on 20 June following a dovish Fed monetary policy meeting. Indeed, the dovish shift among major central banks (with the sole exception of the Norges Bank) and high global uncertainty have pushed global yields lower recently, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Indeed, since late-2018, […]

US dollar update – path of least resistance remains to the downside

Despite a more dovish Fed, the US dollar has remained strong since the start of the year (as of 28 May, only the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen had fared better). Weak global economic growth, notably as a result of trade tensions, has favoured the US dollar given its safe-haven status and high carry. […]

Limited room for Swiss franc depreciation

The Swiss franc has been supported by a structural current account surplus and by reduced investment flows out of Switzerland since the 2008 financial crisis. In addition, the decline in global yields since the Fed’s dovish shift early this year has rendered interest rate differentials less unfavourable to the franc. The upward pressure on the […]

Euro slides against the dollar on ECB dovishness

The euro fell to a 20-month low against the US dollar following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) March policy meeting, given the revised forward guidance that suggests that the interest rate differential is unlikely to provide much upside to the euro in the next few months. That being said, recent euro area PMI surveys tend […]

Limited upside for USD/JPY but significant downside

The Japanese yen has been weak recently, as volatility in the US stock market has receded. Indeed, the sharp increase in US stock market volatility at the end of last year favoured the yen through short-covering and repatriation flows, whereas the subsequent rebound in global risk appetite has penalised the defensive yen (see chart). This […]

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