At its meeting on 13 June, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will face an uncertain growth and inflation outlook. Economic data have been mixed and, more importantly, external risks (intensification of trade disputes, Brexit, Italian budget disagreements…) have increased. Since the last SNB meeting in March, the CHF has appreciated by 1.5% against the EUR […]
The euro area headline flash Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) dropped to 1.2% year on year in May from 1.7% the previous month. Core inflation fell by 50bp to 0.8% y-o-y. While this reflects volatility stemming from the date of Easter this year, one can legitimately ask why inflation remains so low in the […]
Voter turnout was up for the first time ever and at 51%, higher than in any election since 1994. The results delivered a parliament with a pro-European majority, broadly in line with opinion polls. The traditional centre-right European Popular Party (EPP) and the centre-left Socialist & Democrats (S&D) remained respectively the first and the second […]
A potential improvement in euro area growth in H2 2019 on the back of a revival in the global economy is in jeopardy due to the intensifying trade dispute between the US and China. The euro area is not directly affected, but its indirect exposure to this dispute is not insignificant. Potentially weaker domestic demand […]
German GDP rose by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, accelerating from a flat figure in Q4. The strong Q1 GDP growth is good news and confirms our long-held view that domestic demand remains resilient despite many external headwinds. The signal given by other data (factory orders, surveys) suggests that some negative payback is likely in Q2. […]
Following a series of townhall meetings with French citizens up and down France, President Emmanuel Macron responded to social unrest with two doses of fiscal easing. The December package (worth EUR10bn) was incorporated in the stability plan sent to Brussels before Easter and is included in the 3.1% public deficit planned for this year. The […]
Next week will be a busy one for Europe, with lots of data releases: European Commission business survey (April); advance GDP (Q1); M3 money supply (March); HICP flash estimate of inflation (April); and final manufacturing purchasing manager indices (PMIs, April). The advance Q1 GDP will be especially closely watched. No euro area GDP breakdown will […]
The Swiss federal budget is governed by a strict expenditure rule, which is enshrined in the Constitution. Since its introduction, the ratio of public debt-to-GDP has been significantly reduced, falling back to its early-90s level. At the close of 2018, the Swiss federal budget registered a significant surplus of CHF 2.9 billion, compared with budget […]
The Swiss economy posted impressive GDP growth in 2018, although there was significant divergence between strong growth in the first half and stagnation in the second. Overall, we expect Swiss GDP to expand by 1.3% in 2019, down substantially from 2.5% in 2018. Risks to our growth outlook for Switzerland are tilted to the downside. […]
European Parliament (EP) elections will be a key political event in Europe, a form of ‘midterm election’ in which the electorates can state their approval or disapproval of their respective national governments. Turnout in EP elections has been on a downward trend over the past four decades, dropping from 62% to 43% since 1979. A crucial question is whether […]
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