Author Archive

The US-Iranian snake pit

Iran has sought to goad Europe, Russia and China into providing relief from sanctions introduced since the Americans withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action last year. In particular, at the start of July, Iran said it had exceeded the limit set on stockpile of low-enriched uranium under the 2015 nuclear deal, and a […]

Saudi-Qatari crisis may signal further regional flare-ups

The move by Saudi Arabia and its allies to cut diplomatic relations with Qatar and impose a de facto blockade of the country abruptly deepens a key line of fracture in the Middle East. There is a risk that tensions rise further. If Qatar turns to Iran for support, a direct escalation between Saudi Arabia […]

The crisis in the Middle East and oil prices

Oil currently seems to have reached its fair value at around USD50 per barrel for Brent crude. We expect prices to average around USD55/b in 2017, while supply continues to adapt to sluggish demand. The agreement between OPEC members on 30 November and with non-OPEC producers a week later should reinforce the trend toward stabilisation, […]