Macroview

Perspectives September 2012: "Global economy in 3GD mode"

The September 2012 edition of Perspectives – titled “Global economy in 3GD mode” – is now available for download and online reading. In this edition: • Editorial outlook: Seeking defensive stocks • Macroeconomics: Prospects looking brighter for the second half • Strategy: Mario Draghi’s soothing words • Headline news from around the world: Monetary policy […]

At last, the ECB announces unlimited intervention!

Mario Draghi has finally delivered what was very close to investors’ expectations. In announcing the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs), the ECB will put up its almost unlimited balance sheet to serve as a backstop in this crisis. The main key word in yesterday’s announcement was “unlimited”. The key points of the ECB’s announcement are the […]

Switzerland: Economic growth, GDP contracted q-o-q in Q2

Swiss GDP contracted by 0.1% q-o-q in Q2 2012 (-0.2% annualised), below consensus expectations (+0.2%) and our own expectations (+0.1%). Moreover, growth rates for the preceding few quarters were revised sharply down. For Q1 2012, q-o-q growth was revised from +0.7% to +0.5% and y-o-y growth from 2.0% to 1.2% (see chart below). Very strong […]

Switzerland: Economic growth, GDP contracted q-o-q in Q2

Swiss GDP contracted by 0.1% q-o-q in Q2 2012 (-0.2% annualised), below consensus expectations (+0.2%) and our own expectations (+0.1%). Moreover, growth rates for the preceding few quarters were revised sharply down. For Q1 2012, q-o-q growth was revised from +0.7% to +0.5% and y-o-y growth from 2.0% to 1.2% (see chart below). Very strong […]

Markets on hold until further political decisions

Yves Bonzon, Chief Investment Officier, explains that the levels necessary to trigger quantitative easing measures in the US have not been reached, shifting the responsibility for growth to Europe and the political measures that will be discussed in September. The markets will be volatile until then and the preferred asset classes remain investment grade corporate […]

United States: Q3 consumption growth is likely to be healthier than feared

US consumption growth perspectives in Q3 are turning modestly encouraging. As expected, following the publication in mid-august of relatively upbeat July 2012 retail sales data, last week’s nominal personal consumption expenditure data for the same month showed a rise of a solid 0.4% m-o-m. However, following the sharp uptick in gasoline prices over the past […]

Euro area: maintaining our forecast of a deeper contraction in the third quarter

As during the previous quarter, the euro area will probably be stuck in recession in the current one as well. However, last week’s Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) release is noticeable in the sense that it is the first serious sign of economic stabilisation after several months of deterioration. The only exceptions, so far, have been […]

US retail sales: robust rise in July, following softness in Q2

Retail sales bounced back by 0.8% m-o-m in July, well above consensus expectations. Moreover, core sales were also stronger than expected: up 0.9% m-o-m, against consensus estimates of 0.5%. All in all, this report was clearly encouraging. However, July’s solid increase in sales followed widespread weakness in Q2. We expect consumption growth to be higher […]

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