Macroview

Prix Pictet 2012: Power

Founded in 2008, the Prix Pictet has rapidly established itself as the world’s leading prize in photography and sustainability. The award has a global audience of over 400 million, and aims to uncover outstanding photography applied to confront the most pressing social and environmental challenges of today. Following themes that have included water, earth and […]

United States: job creation above expectations

Overall, today’s report was encouraging, with job creation in October above expectations and upward revisions in recent past figures. However, the recent pace of job creation is not far above the average for this cycle and growth in labour income seems to have stabilised but remains quite modest. Non-farm payroll employment increased by 171,000 m-o-m […]

Euro area: we revise our GDP growth forecasts down

October industrial surveys mark a weak start to Q4, resulting in a increased risk of protracted recession in the euro area. As a result, we have revised our GDP growth forecast downwards. Q4 q-o-q growth has been revised from 0.0% to -0.2% and Q1 2013 from 0.15% to 0.0%. For the whole of 2012 this […]

Commodities in 2013 (part 3/3)

Chloé Koos Dunand Commodities Strategist Pictet Wealth Management’s Commodities Strategist Chloé Koos Dunand discusses whether the commodity boom has come to an end or has resurfaced, and paints the picture for the commodities market in 2013. Outlook for 2013 In the first half of 2013, the deceleration of global growth is likely to weigh on […]

Commodities in 2013 (part 2/3)

Chloé Koos Dunand Commodities Strategist In this three part article, Pictet Wealth Management’s Commodities Strategist Chloé Koos Dunand addresses the key issues pertaining to this debate, and paints the picture for the commodities market in 2013. The cycle: About China, QE3, and the sovereign crisis How will the QE3 impact commodities? Preceding quantitative easing programmes […]

Commodities in 2013 (part 1/3)

Chloé Koos Dunand Commodities Strategist Commodities have produced lacklustre returns so far this year. While the asset class rebounded strongly in January, it was short-lived. By June, commodity returns were flat for the year, and the market was required to demonstrate patience until the rebound in the fourth quarter, which was in large part due […]

EU Summit: One step forward toward a Banking Union

The EU heads of state took a step toward banking union last week during the first day of the EU Summit. The decisions taken certainly do not represent a breakthrough, although they did help to ease investors’ nerves after concerns re-emerged recently. A summit held on 25 September between Germany, Netherlands and Finland seemed to […]

China: economic growth to pick-up only moderately

The National Bureau of Statistics released key economic indicators yesterday, which suggest that growth is stabilising and that economic policy is having some impact. However, we do not expect a strong pick-up in growth as we believe the new yardstick for annual GDP growth in the years ahead is likely to be around the 7.5% […]

US industrial production: a rebound in the fourth quarter is likely

US Industrial production data for September confirm that growth in manufacturing output slowed sharply over the course of the third quarter. However, as auto sales have been surging recently and real core retail sales are improving as well, some rebound in industrial production appears very likely in Q4. Industrial production rose by 0.4% m-o-m in […]

United States: Strong retail sales in September, with upward revisions for July-August

Yesterday’s nominal retail sales figures for September were quite encouraging for consumption growth in Q3: they rose by a strong 1.1% m-o-m in the month, above consensus expectations (+0.8%). Moreover, the figure for August was revised up (from +0.9% to +1.2%), as was July’s (from +0.6% to +0.7%). Most of the strong headline figures seen over […]

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