Core inflation moved further back up Core CPI rose by 0.2% m-o-m in January, above consensus expectations of +0.1% for the second month in a row Y-o-y core inflation accelerated further from 1.0% in January to 1.1% in February We believe that core inflation will pick up further modestly during the course of 2011. Our […]
As expected, the SNB kept its target rate on hold and was more upbeat on the prospects for growth We still do not expect any rate hike before Q4 2011 at the earliest The SNB was surprisingly silent about problems posed by the surging Swiss franc Although anything looks possible in the short-run, we continue […]
New record price reached in the last fortnight The price of gold has risen by 1.3%, to $1,427 an ounce in a fortnight. The year-to-date performance is finally positive, with an increase of 1%. Commodity prices, as measured by the GSCI spot commodity index, have increased by 1.4% over the fortnight. COMEX non-commercial positions and […]
February data strong and January number revised substantially up Retail sales rose buoyantly in February and January’s data were revised substantially up As a result, the Q1 slowdown in consumption growth appears less marked than previously suggested As a result, our forecast for consumption growth in Q1 (+2.5% q-o-q annualised, following +4.1% in Q4) can […]
Net new credit positive in Q4 2010, for the first time since Q3 2008. Overall credit to the non financial private sector increased in Q4, in quite an encouraging development Details show wide contrasts: lending to the corporate sector is back to “normal”, whereas home mortgage debt is still in sizable contraction The Federal Reserve’s […]
The US trade deficit widened sharply in January to $46.3bn. Higher oil prices accounted for only a small part of the deficit increase Over the past couple of months, both real exports and real imports grew very strongly This strength in both foreign and domestic demand indicates robust economic growth The US trade deficit (trade […]
Here are the key highlights from the employment statistics: Payrolls rose by a healthy 192,000 in February, in line with consensus estimates. Moreover, the net revision for the previous 2 months was +58K Encouragingly, the unemployment rate fell further from 9.0% in January to 8.9% in February Other data were softer. Aggregate weekly payrolls (a […]
Yesterday, short-dated Eurozone benchmark bonds sold off the most as ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet was very hawkish in his introductory statement at the press conference. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged at 1% as widely expected. However, Trichet mentioned that the governing council will display strong vigilance and may even raise rates at the next […]
Trichet announces that a 25 basis point rate hike is likely as early as April The ECB is set to risk starting the tightening cycle too early Weakest Member States likely to be weakened by the decision At the same time, nonstandard measures are maintained at least until the end of Q2 Accordingly, we have […]
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