Payrolls rose by a healthy 216,000 in March, above consensus estimates. Encouragingly as well, the unemployment rate fell further from 8.9% in February to 8.8% in March Other data were also upbeat, in particular due to an upward revision of February’s average workweek. As a result, aggregate weekly payrolls (a proxy for labour income) grew […]
Today we summarize the long-term trends of China’s economy and the transformations at work. These highlights are more structural than cyclical, and portray the pattern of Chinese growth, its sustainability and the challenges for the coming years. The size of the Chinese economy put into perspective China may be the world’s second largest economy, but […]
NIPA corporate profits rose by 9.7% q-o-q annualised in Q4 10, slightly higher than in Q3 (+6.6%) Profits from financial corporations bounced back further sharply q-o-q but non-financial profits actually declined modestly The third estimate of Q3 GDP data was accompanied by a set of economy wide statistics on corporate profits in a National Accounts […]
Total industrial production dropped by 0.1% m-o-m in February, due to a fall in the most volatile component (utilities) However, manufacturing production was up 0.4% and January’s number was revised sharply up As a result, growth in manufacturing output bounced back sharply over the past few months, consistent with what was suggested by recent ISM […]
Core inflation moved further back up Core CPI rose by 0.2% m-o-m in January, above consensus expectations of +0.1% for the second month in a row Y-o-y core inflation accelerated further from 1.0% in January to 1.1% in February We believe that core inflation will pick up further modestly during the course of 2011. Our […]
As expected, the SNB kept its target rate on hold and was more upbeat on the prospects for growth We still do not expect any rate hike before Q4 2011 at the earliest The SNB was surprisingly silent about problems posed by the surging Swiss franc Although anything looks possible in the short-run, we continue […]
New record price reached in the last fortnight The price of gold has risen by 1.3%, to $1,427 an ounce in a fortnight. The year-to-date performance is finally positive, with an increase of 1%. Commodity prices, as measured by the GSCI spot commodity index, have increased by 1.4% over the fortnight. COMEX non-commercial positions and […]
February data strong and January number revised substantially up Retail sales rose buoyantly in February and January’s data were revised substantially up As a result, the Q1 slowdown in consumption growth appears less marked than previously suggested As a result, our forecast for consumption growth in Q1 (+2.5% q-o-q annualised, following +4.1% in Q4) can […]
Net new credit positive in Q4 2010, for the first time since Q3 2008. Overall credit to the non financial private sector increased in Q4, in quite an encouraging development Details show wide contrasts: lending to the corporate sector is back to “normal”, whereas home mortgage debt is still in sizable contraction The Federal Reserve’s […]
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