Last week’s continued equities sell-off was driven by disappointment with the earnings reporting season. Having propped up market returns for much of this year, tech’s poor performance was particularly noteworthy. Last week, below-expectation metrics from Amazon and Alphabet (Google’s parent company) flattened the S&P 500’s returns for 2018, while European equities have been much more […]
The first estimate for Q3 GDP (3.5% quarter-on-quarter annualised) confirmed that the US business cycle remains solid. Whereas consumption was stronger than in previous quarters, investment was softer than in the first half of the year—but the underlying story is that solid consumption continues to support US growth. Overall, we expect both to be resilient going […]
Investment is an important driver of the business cycle and a key determinant of potential growth. In the euro area, total investment makes up about 20% of GDP. Construction, machinery and equipment (including weapons systems), intellectual property rights and agricultural products account, respectively, for 48%, 32%, 18% and 2% of total investment. Machinery and equipment […]
IMD Lausanne is a world-leading business school based in the Lausanne region. Its Global Family Business Centre, which has operated for more than 30 years, was the first institute to focus on family businesses, their values, the principles they champion and their particular characteristics. In October 2018, Pictet joined forces with IMD to the IMD Global Family Business […]
Most opinion polls suggest that the Democrats will win a majority in the House in the 6 November midterms, while the Republicans will retain their majority in the Senate. The historical relationship between the president’s approval rating and seats lost by his party in the midterms further corroborates the likelihood of a loss of House […]
The euro area economy started the fourth quarter on a weak note; the flash composite PMI dipped to 52.7 in October from 54.1 in September. Both manufacturing and services showed a notable loss of momentum. A common feature in France and Germany was the weakness in manufacturing, where both countries posted similar declines. Part of […]
Today we are witnessing a redefinition of international relations and a new, although likely unstable, global equilibrium. The trade dispute unfolding today between the US and China should be seen in light of shifting structural trends that have developed over the last few decades. We expect rationality will eventually prevail, but the outlook is muddled […]
Our EM FX scorecard, which ranks 10 EM currencies according to key criteria (such as growth and vulnerability to external shocks) saw few changes over the past month. The Fed’s current hawkish attitude remains a headwind for EM currencies, as it increases funding costs. That said, the weakest EM currencies have seen some stabilisation, particularly […]
Italian bond prices regained some ground after Moody’s cut Italy’s credit rating by one notch on Friday, keeping it within investment grade, while upgrading its outlook from negative to stable. Investors welcomed this as positive news while they anticipate Italy’s response to Brussels’ criticism of its proposed 2019 budget due later today. This could prove […]
In two decades, Portugal has gone through a boom (1996-2001), a slump (2002-2007), a deep recession (2008-2013), a timid recovery (2014-2016) and now a robust economic expansion. In 2017, real GDP grew by 2.8%, its fastest pace since 2000. This is even more remarkable when considering that the country exited its bailout programme only in […]
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