Archive for the ‘Horizon’ Category

Returns will likely fall over the next decade

The latest edition of Horizon is out, containing Pictet Wealth Management’s updated secular outlook and expected returns for the main asset classes over the next 10 years.Some of the highlights are as follows: Expected Returns Equities: below long-term average but still attractive. Our models suggest that global equities can be expected to post a 6% […]

Horizon: update of our expected returns from asset classes over the next 10 years

We have updated our estimates of expected returns in the new edition of Horizon. Expected returns for almost all asset classes are lower than in a historical comparison—in many cases substantially so. A traditional 60/40 portfolio (60% equities, 40% government bonds) would return just 6.9% annually with an innovation shock and 4.2% without, on our […]

Horizon Spring 2014 – 10-year average annual expected returns

Calculating expected returns for asset classes forms one of the cornerstones of asset allocation. Having a lengthy investment time-horizon makes it feasible to allow for an eventual innovation shock leading to a paradigm shift in economic regime. We have based our models on a 10-year investment time-frame. For each asset class, we have put forward two projections for annual average returns, the difference being whether […]

Horizon July 2013

This new biannual publication of Pictet Wealth Management highlights the expected returns of asset classes over the next 10 years. Two scenarios are used to conduct the calculations: with or without the hypothesis of an innovation shock over the period. In this first issue, shale oil and shale gas are taken into account in the […]