Will Knut Wicksell be proved right? The Swede’s theories include the notion that there is a ‘natural’ level of interest rates, consistent with the economy operating at its full potential without overheating. But the actions of central banks have forced interest rates to artificially low levels in recent times, well below their ‘natural’ levels. If […]
Central banks contributed to halting the financial crisis (starting with the US Federal Reserve’s first quantitative easing package, launched in late 2008), with successive rate cuts helping companies and households in the West to deleverage. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) followed with aggressive policies at a later stage, when the […]
Growth is gradually normalising as cyclical weaknesses abate, and we expect fairly healthy rates of economic growth in developed economies in 2016. Moreover, we believe that an innovation shock could boost growth in the coming years — and indeed that a technological innovation shock has already begun, although its effects are still concentrated on certain sectors for now.
Since 2009, major central banks such as the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and others have largely determined the trends in the major asset classes of both emerging and developed countries: equities, sovereign and corporate bonds, and currencies. Investors found their guiding light in the central banks. […]
The Vix, a widely used measure of equity-market volatility, was in a systemic risk regime for 15 days this year, compared with just two days in 2014 and none at all in 2013, as shown by the chart below. This year’s experience of volatility is still not extensive in a historical comparison, but it still […]
We view recent developments on Chinese markets as a sharp correction rather than the start of a long-term bear market. In the meantime, the economic recovery in the US and the euro area continues to gain traction. Recent developments in China need to be seen in the context of long-term economic trends. China is in […]
One answer to cope with political uncertainty: diversification Comparing investors to tightrope walkers is obvious: both are constantly striving to perform a tricky balancing-act. When making decisions, investors are seeking to find the ideal balance between generating a good return and shouldering risk against a backdrop of uncertainties.The two crises involving Greece and China remind […]
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