Two ways to manage negative rates Some believed that the race towards monetary easing had reached its climax with quantitative easing (QE) and the zero interest-rate policy. Yet against all odds, a further stage occurred with the introduction of negative interest rates in the eurozone, Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland. In the process, the yield to […]
Eurozone policy mix remains incomplete The European Central Bank had already signalled its intentions and did not disappoint investors when, on 21 January, it announced a plan to acquire sovereign debt to a minimum of €60bn monthly up to September 2016.To understand what this level of quantitative easing can do to boost the eurozone economy, […]
The oil price collapse is consistent with the long-standing themes in our Secular Trends Every year in November we review and update our Secular Trends publication. In simple terms, our prognosis for the decade favours – and has favoured – developed markets over emerging markets, the dollar over the euro, and technology over commodities. At […]
The effects of changes to QE are not linear The era of unconventional monetary policy began after the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank in September 2009. One of the most controversial aspects of this policy is the direct purchase of assets by central banks, commonly known as quantitative easing or QE. At the […]
Asset management in the era of big data While the departure of the ‘bond king’ Bill Gross at Pimco has dominated headlines in the asset management industry, behind the scenes, leaders are worrying about possible future competition from tech giants such as Google, Facebook or Alibaba. But what is there to fear, a priori, from […]
Eight years after its launch, the structural abnormality captured by the “Distrusted 50” strategy remains intact and a hedged implementation that mitigates exposure to market risk still makes much sense.
Reversion to the mean: a matter of when, not if The new record high of America’s S&P 500 index in nominal terms has revived the debate on the possible overvaluation of stock markets. Equities are seen as totally disconnected from the real economy due to the intended consequences of unconventional monetary policy, specifically the inflation […]
The euro, government debt and Mario Draghi Given that the economic background in the eurozone has remained depressed, the recovery by the euro and European markets since summer 2012 is all the more spectacular. A good example of this divergence is the fact that, while outstanding Italian government debt has risen from one all-time high […]
After the current phase of consolidation of European indices, one of two things can happen. Either we exit this phase on the up, which seems unlikely without the big European names being involved. Or we return to renewed cyclical or political tensions, in which case quality stocks will benefit from their defensive characteristics. Either way, it seems wise not to offload large blue chips.
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