We have described the current economic cycle as being driven by the technology sector and by innovation. In this respect it echoes the 1990s, which were marked by the growth of the Internet and the mobile telephone. Today, innovation is found on varied fronts.These include the transition from PC to mobile, robotics, the convergence of life sciences and technology, low-cost ‘big data’ processing, electric cars.
Just as Ben Bernanke passes the baton to the new Chair of the Federal Reserve, increasing tensions in emerging markets have reminded us that the main structural risk remains deflation, not inflation as his detractors have always claimed.
At the end of the opening day of Pictet Wealth Management Strategy Committee’s annual seminar at Villars-sur-Ollon in October, our digital screens were all displaying the names of the winners of the 2013 Nobel Prize for Economics. On the one hand, Robert Schiller, a proponent of the theory of investors’ irrationality, was rewarded for his […]
In mid-January, the era of Janet Yellen as Chairman of the US Federal Reserve begins. Her nomination has reassured investors, who see her as providing continuity in the monetary policy of the world’s most important central bank. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, at a new high of over 16,000 at the time of writing, reflects […]
• Editorial outlook: A failure of momentum • Macroeconomics: Economic dynamics favourable overall • Strategy: Cyclical plays to the fore • Headline news from around the world: Monetary policies moving in divergent directions • Asset classes: Risk factors confirmed as taking over as driving forces • Topic of the month: Are hedge funds staging a comeback? […]
Last December, in our investment guidance for 2013, we suggested that the year could be characterised by a decline in the Swiss franc, particularly against the euro. Movements in the first half seemed to confirm this prognosis, since in January and again in May the exchange rate soared above 1.25 (although it failed to stay […]
In this edition: • CIO Yves Bonzon’s editorial outlook: One train may hide another • Macroeconomics: The cost of the US monetary brake • Strategy: Clouds of risk bubbling up over emerging markets • Headline news: Monetary tightening in various parts of the globe • Asset classes: Financial markets hanging on the Fed’s every word […]
In this month’s Perspectives magazine: Yves Bonzon’s editorial outlook: The Fed’s bet Macroeconomics: Central banks breeding anxiety Strategy: Correction providing a strategic entry-point Headline news from around the world: Turkey and Australia under the cosh Asset classes: China and the US sewing seeds of discord Topic of the month: Ramifications of the crisis in China’s interbank market Key figures: Interest rates […]
Of all the key indicators in financial markets, the most important is the value and trend of the US dollar. Essentially there are three regimes for the American currency. The depreciation regime This is the regime most frequently observed since the end of the Bretton Woods monetary system in August 1971. These phases of orderly depreciation generally correspond to periods […]
Hedge funds may have been the winners in the bear market of 2002, but in the crisis of 2008 they were among the biggest losers. Locked in to losses by “gates” and other “side-pockets”, private investors have been disappointed by their performance in the market rally over the past four years. Today aversion to liquid […]
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