Perspectives

Emerging-world uncertainties not holding developed markets back

We have described the current economic cycle as being driven by the technology sector and by innovation. In this respect it echoes the 1990s, which were marked by the growth of the Internet and the mobile telephone. Today, innovation is found on varied fronts.These include the transition from PC to mobile, robotics, the convergence of life sciences and technology, low-cost ‘big data’ processing, electric cars.

Anomalies, bubbles and monetary policies: asset allocation at a crossroads

At the end of the opening day of Pictet Wealth Management Strategy Committee’s annual seminar at Villars-sur-Ollon in October, our digital screens were all displaying the names of the winners of the 2013 Nobel Prize for Economics. On the one hand, Robert Schiller, a proponent of the theory of investors’ irrationality, was rewarded for his […]

Equities monomania could grab hold of investors

In mid-January, the era of Janet Yellen as Chairman of the US Federal Reserve begins. Her nomination has reassured investors, who see her as providing continuity in the monetary policy of the world’s most important central bank. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, at a new high of over 16,000 at the time of writing, reflects […]

Deflationary pressures mounting in Europe

• Editorial outlook: A failure of momentum • Macroeconomics: Economic dynamics favourable overall • Strategy: Cyclical plays to the fore • Headline news from around the world: Monetary policies moving in divergent directions • Asset classes: Risk factors confirmed as taking over as driving forces • Topic of the month: Are hedge funds staging a comeback? […]

Contagion not spreading from emerging to developed markets

In this edition: • CIO Yves Bonzon’s editorial outlook: One train may hide another • Macroeconomics: The cost of the US monetary brake • Strategy: Clouds of risk bubbling up over emerging markets • Headline news: Monetary tightening in various parts of the globe • Asset classes: Financial markets hanging on the Fed’s every word […]

China facing daunting threat of a ‘Minsky Moment’

In this month’s Perspectives magazine: Yves Bonzon’s editorial outlook: The Fed’s bet Macroeconomics: Central banks breeding anxiety Strategy: Correction providing a strategic entry-point Headline news from around the world: Turkey and Australia under the cosh Asset classes: China and the US sewing seeds of discord Topic of the month: Ramifications of the crisis in China’s interbank market Key figures: Interest rates […]

Shift in market regime: outweighing the onset of deflationary tendencies in Europe

Of all the key indicators in financial markets, the most important is the value and trend of the US dollar. Essentially there are three regimes for the American currency. The depreciation regime This is the regime most frequently observed since the end of the Bretton Woods monetary system in August 1971. These phases of orderly depreciation generally correspond to periods […]

Diminishing risks, but economic uncertainties

Hedge funds may have been the winners in the bear market of 2002, but in the crisis of 2008 they were among the biggest losers. Locked in to losses by “gates” and other “side-pockets”, private investors have been disappointed by their performance in the market rally over the past four years. Today aversion to liquid […]

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